HeyJaredMatthew Graham
- Indexed articles, last 90 days
- 211
- Latest publication
- Oct 1, 2026
- Outlet visibility, for Mortgage News Daily
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- Jul 6, 2026
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Thursday's Rally Sets Up For a Very Interesting Friday (opens the original)
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Thursday's Rally Sets Up For a Very Interesting Friday Of course we had to have a big, interesting move in the bond market on the day before an economic report also famous for causing big, interesting moves. On such occasions, if Friday delivers on "interesting" it will either negate today's bullishness or add to it in a way that makes today retroactively look like an obvious near-term top in rates. There's no way to know enough about today's rally to conclude that--let alone the unknowable resu
Solid Mid-Day Recovery For Rates (opens the original)
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It's a rarity these days, but mortgage rates actually moved lower today by more than a token amount. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate fell to 7.54% from 7.60% yesterday. There are multiple potential factors in play when it comes to explaining the underlying bond market rally, but none of them stand out as an obvious singular motivation. For those curious, the list (which has several esoteric factors that we won't be fully explaining here) includes, but is not limited to: A day like today inv
Just Another Bad Day For Bonds Without New Justification (opens the original)
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Just Another Bad Day For Bonds Without New Justification 10yr yields hit another long-term high today, breaking above 5.30% briefly before settling just under 5.29%. There was a flash of hope after the 8:30am econ data, but that reversed fairly quickly. Reasons can be debated. Some would say today's broadly stronger econ data supported it while pointing out that the "beat" in PCE wasn't really news in light of the methodology changes. On that note, some might say methodology that drops core PCE
Mortgage Rates End Day Higher Despite Promising Start (opens the original)
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For a few moments this morning, it looked as if rates might buck the recent trend and recover a bit of ground today. The underlying bond market was fairly flat overnight and then managed to improve after this morning's PCE inflation data. But that improvement was short-lived. Top tier 30yr fixed rates jumped to 7.60%. That's only 0.02% higher than yesterday, but yet another long-term high. As frustrating as it continues to be, there are no convenient scapegoats for the reversal in terms of intra
Lower PCE Inflation, So Why Aren't Bonds Happier? (opens the original)
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Core PCE came in at 0.2 vs a 0.3 forecast, and the bond market rallied a bit in response. That said, the unrounded number was .247, which about as high as it could be without rounding up to 0.3. Core annual PCE was 3.0, which was flat versus a downward revision from 3.3. More importantly, that downward revision wasn't mainly about new data collection showing lower prices, but rather a change in PCE methodology. Not all of the methodology change is transparent, but our best estimate is that a vas
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