HeyJaredNicholas Eberstadt
- Indexed articles, last 90 days
- 7
- Latest publication
- Sep 23, 2026
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- Top 500K sites
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- Jul 22, 2026
Latest articles
Quo Vadis Hispania? Part Three (opens the original)
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Twenty years ago, Oxford University demographer David Coleman predicted that a “third demographic transition” was coming to Europe—and would transform the continent in the decades ahead. The concept “demographic transition” (formalized by Princeton’s Frank Notestein in 1945) initially referred to the great international shift from short lives and large families to long lives and small families—a global process not yet entirely completed. Then, in the 1980s, demographers Ron Lesthaeghe and Dirk v
Quo Vadis Hispania? Part Three (opens the original)
Read excerpt
Twenty years ago, Oxford University demographer David Coleman predicted that a “third demographic transition” was coming to Europe—and would transform the continent in the decades ahead. The concept “demographic transition” (formalized by Princeton’s Frank Notestein in 1945) initially referred to the great international shift from short lives and large families to long lives and small families—a global process not yet entirely completed. Then, in the 1980s, demographers Ron Lesthaeghe and Dirk v
The Incredible Global Birth Crash (opens the original)
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Human beings are unique among living creatures in being able to alter their own fertility deliberately, imposing their own constantly changing choices and preferences on childbearing. We are now watching a revolutionary transformation of human birth choices play out around the world in a way that only science fiction writers could have imagined even a generation ago. Humanity is in the midst of a headlong global birth crash—a plunge underway all around the world, in rich and poor regions alike,
Quo Vadis Hispania? Part Two (opens the original)
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Mass immigration is arguably the most important demographic force at play in Europe today. It is also one of the most salient—and polarizing—issues in contemporary European politics. In our previous post we examined the case of Spain—a country with nearly 50 million inhabitants that has in effect embraced mass immigration to forestall the prospect of depopulation due to extreme and prolonged sub-replacement fertility by native Spaniards. By its own lights, that population policy has been success
Quo Vadis, Hispania? Part One (opens the original)
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Late last month the tiny Spanish territory of Ceuta, an enclave on the North African side of the Strait of Gibraltar, was suddenly overrun by an influx of tens of thousands of migrants—overwhelmingly, young Moroccan men. (Spain’s Interior Minister put the count at 72,000—over 75 of whom died in the chaos.) The bizarre episode electrified the European public and alarmed EU governments. Spain’s Prime Minister, Pedro Sanchez, labeled it “an attack” and “a violation of territorial integrity of Spain
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