Derek Scissors
- Indexed articles, last 90 days
- 6
- Latest publication
- Sep 24, 2026
- Outlet visibility, for aei.org
- Top 500K sites
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- Jul 8, 2026
Latest articles
China’s Nonsense on Investing Overseas (opens the original)
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China’s Ministry of Commerce this month released its 2025 bulletin on outbound investment, and, surprise, things look good. Outbound investment climbed 11 percent past $213 billion, a new record. You may not have noticed this in headlines, much less in your neighborhood. That’s because it borders on nonsense. China’s the world’s top trader and world’s top builder in foreign countries, but for some reason badly exaggerates its investment footprint. The main reason you haven’t noticed is because m
India’s Growth Outperforms, Says India (opens the original)
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One quarter of GDP growth doesn’t matter much. India this week announced 7.8 percent real GDP growth in its April–June quarter. If the true result is 5.8 percent, few will notice. The issue is longer term. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government took the result, which beat most expectations, as evidence of wise policy and its critics’ mistakes. As one critic, I could certainly be wrong. But India continuing to sing its own praises is not convincing. An immediate problem is that last year’s bas
China Trade: President Trump Is Trapping Himself (opens the original)
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The Chinese government on Monday claimed the US has promised to cap tariffs at 20 percent. This is at least misleading and may be false. To the extent it’s accurate, it could help stabilize the Trump administration’s fluctuating trade policy. However, the cost would be prohibitively high: bizarrely favorable treatment of China, possible discrimination against better partners, a clear route to another loss in court, and a painful policy trap. The Chinese statement is misleading in that American t
China’s Outbound Investment Shrugs Off the Iran War (opens the original)
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Visibility into China’s international economic activity has declined. One cause is Chinese firms are becoming less transparent, with their websites more frequently inaccessible outside China and information about their operations deliberately limited, even at home. There’s also a research problem. Scraping the internet is a common and poor approach. Doing so overstates transactions because many news sources struggle with accuracy, thanks chiefly to local officials boasting of large deals that ma
How Long Has China’s Economy Been This Weak? (opens the original)
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China surprised everyone Tuesday night by acknowledging GDP growth well below 5 percent. The official rate is 4.3 percent for the second quarter and 4.7 percent for the first half, to just over $10.1 trillion. More interesting than most such announcements, but not especially important. The important question is whether the true situation is somewhat worse than headline growth suggests, or much worse. Nominal GDP gained 5.3 percent for the first half, indicating a 0.6 percent deflator. This is sl
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