HeyJaredBenn Steil
- Indexed articles, last 90 days
- 4
- Latest publication
- Sep 25, 2026
- Outlet visibility, for Council on Foreign Relations
- Top 500K sites
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- Aug 4, 2026
Latest articles
Can We “Grow Our Way” Out of Debt? | Council on Foreign Relations (opens the original)
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The U.S national debt stands at $40 trillion, but it won’t stand there long. With the government running an annual budget deficit of 6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), the debt will rise another $7 billion by the end of today—and each subsequent day. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent recently made front-page headlines by asserting that “with 3% growth, we grow our way out of this.” But is he right? As shown in the graphic above, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio roughly stabilizes if the economy
The Shifting Composition of Treasury Buyers Threatens to Worsen the U.S. Debt Trajectory | Council on Foreign Relations (opens the original)
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Investors are demanding greater returns to hold U.S. government debt. Notwithstanding the Treasury’s pledge to buy back more long-term securities, 30-year Treasuries recently sold at their lowest price in nearly 20 years. The fundamental problem, as we show in the graphic above, is that the issuance of Treasuries necessary to cover the government’s burgeoning debt is outpacing the appetite of price-insensitive buyers, such as foreign central banks. The upshot is that Treasuries must increasingly
Big Macs Say the Dollar is Way Overvalued. iPad Minis Say It's Not so. | Council on Foreign Relations (opens the original)
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[Interactive content — https://cfr-vallenato-media.s3.amazonaws.com/vallenato/wpvip/tableau.html?url=https%3A//public.tableau.com/views/MiniMacAug2026/Dashboard1&maxWidth=1800] The “law of one price” holds that identical goods should trade for the same price in an efficient market. But how well does it actually hold internationally? The Economist magazine’s Big Mac Index uses the price of McDonald’s Big Macs around the world, expressed in a common currency (U.S. dollars), to measure the extent t
Why the Fed’s Published Inflation Forecasts Are Meaningless—Or Worse | Council on Foreign Relations (opens the original)
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In a July 9 Washington Post op-ed, I (Benn) argued in favor of new Fed chair Kevin Warsh’s move to dispense with forward guidance. The argument was based on decades of evidence that Federal Open Market Committee inflation forecasts are highly inaccurate—systematically more so than the private sector’s—and that forecasts of future rate decisions incentivize members to validate them through actual rate votes, even when more recent data have discredited them. In this post, we show that FOMC inflati
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