HeyJaredYes, I give a fig... thoughts on markets from Michael Green
Thoughts on financial markets and economics from Simplify's Chief Strategist
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 12
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- Sep 27, 2026
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- Jul 26, 2026
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We Outsourced the Verb (opens the original)
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The Private Cost of JudgmentFinance delegates enormous amounts of judgment. Mandates constrain portfolios, benchmarks define deviation, risk systems set limits, and committees establish policy. Each layer can improve decisions. Each layer can also provide a sentence in which no human appears to have acted: “the benchmark required it”, “risk rejected it”, “the model said no, I’m sorry”. Or, as we are seeing in bonds, the model said “Less of those.”AI makes the delegation much easier. A model can
The Market Has a Rule of Its Own (opens the original)
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To my readers: We’ll return to the philosophical next week. But Wednesday’s Fed decision to hike—and, more importantly, the explanation for why—requires a detour into Bondville. This note is written BOTH for you and for policy makers. I’ll attempt to summarize as plainly as possible, but there will be technical terms and details.For my readers and those who should not need it: “No Market Is Free”Economics often teaches us to think of markets as if they exist first and rules are added later. That
The Machine Never Releases (opens the original)
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"The past is never dead. It's not even past. All of us labor in webs spun long before we were born, webs of heredity and environment, of desire and consequence, of history and eternity." — William Faulkner, Requiem for a NunI ended The Quiet Turning with a qualified sentence: “Preserve room for forgiveness and context, because a society that remembers everything without understanding anything will become unbearable.”That essay was about the falling cost of checking a claim. A founder could once
The Quiet Turning (opens the original)
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“There is a new common knowledge. Everybody knows that everybody knows that the way you make a killing is to bet that grifters are gonna’ grift, and nobody’s going to lift a finger to stop them.”— Rusty Guinn, 2020 Read more
The Vibecession Was Real (opens the original)
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“What? Over? Did you say ‘over’? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!” — Kevin WarshReaders of a certain age will recognize that Kevin Warsh did not, in fact, deliver those immortal lines in John Landis’s Animal House. But the misattribution feels appropriate.Warsh appears to have flopped back to hawk for much the same reason Bluto launched into that speech: the argument itself has become secondary to the question, “Who’s with me?”That
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