HeyJaredWorld at Odds
World at Odds is a podcast about probability in a polarized world.I’m Matt — a former pro poker player who spent five years making a living at the tables, and someone who’s been limited or banned by multiple tier-one sportsbooks after finding sustained edge in their markets.
- Indexed episodes, last 90 days
- 4
- Latest publication
- Sep 17, 2026
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- Earliest in this view
- Aug 10, 2026
Latest episodes
World at Odds Episode 12 | Selling Harris, Buying Newsom & Will the Dolphins Go 0-17? Off the cuff! (opens the original)
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Episode 12. Andrew and I both forgot we were recording today, so we're doing this one off the cuff.Week 1 went pretty well. I went 4-2 on our official bets, and Andrew hit a 3-leg parlay that he'll admit a good trader probably maybe shouldn't have placed. Meanwhile the Dolphins looked so bad that I'm saying 0-17 out loud now.Then we get into politics. The generic congressional ballot's been moving toward Democrats all month, and I've got the over/under at 30 House seats. Gavin Newsom told Jake T
World at Odds Episode11 | Man vs Machine vs the Miami Dolphins: Our NFL Season Bets (opens the original)
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The NFL starts in a week and this episode is NFL only. No politics. **Update, Sept 10: Two changes to my Week 1 spreads. I didn't take Seattle -3.5 in the end. I copied Andrew's Ravens -3.5 at the Colts instead** The main event: 3 Super Bowl baskets, scored against each other all season . Andrew built an 8-team basket and learned the real name for the strategy from a guy who works in sportsbooks (it's called Dutching, and it's named after a gangster). I built an 11-team basket tilted hard toward
World at Odds Episode10 | NFL Is Back: The Lions Are Underpriced, Should Rubio Scare Democrats & Is AOC's Surge a Mirage? (opens the original)
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Ten episodes in, which by podcasting standards makes us middle-aged. The NFL is twelve days out, the World Cup is done, and the midterms are close enough to start piling on. The main event: Matt thinks the Detroit Lions are the most mispriced team on the board. Vegas has them at double-digit wins and one of the softest schedules in the league. Polymarket has them around 4.2 cents, roughly 24-to-1, with nine teams priced above them. The same screen says Dallas is the most overpriced team in footb
World at Odds Episode09 | We're Back: World Cup Confessions, Betting the 2026 Midterms & NFL Value Picks (opens the original)
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We're back , and it's midterms season. After a long summer hiatus (Matt got his tonsils out at an age where you really shouldn't, Andrew watched wildebeest get eaten in Tanzania), we return to Matt's favorite thing to bet on: the 2026 midterm elections on Polymarket. The main event: the weird gap in the markets right now. Eight of the ten closest Senate races lean Democrat, and Republicans are still favored to keep the Senate. We get into why that's not actually crazy, what mid-decade redistrict
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