HeyJaredWasif
30 year investment professional. Fund manager and macro junkie
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 3
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- Sep 23, 2026
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- Jul 30, 2026
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Return to Tangibles – Act I Update (opens the original)
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"All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."– Gandalf, The Fellowship of the Ring, J.R.R. TolkienIn May 2024 I published our inaugural paper on the Return to Tangibles: our view that the next major secular market theme will be a commodity super-cycle. We posited that this renewed investment and growth cycle in commodities would be driven by a series of macro, geopolitical and fundamental catalysts, shifting the market leadership to tangible assets. Two years later, the <
The Diesel Effect (opens the original)
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Crude oil, on its own, is useless. You cannot put it in a tractor, a truck, a plane, or a ship. Its value is created at the refinery, where gasoline, jet fuel, and distillates are made. Refineries also make diesel, one of the most important outputs, fueling agriculture, construction, mining, roughly 90% of U.S. freight tonnage, impacting around 80% of global trade.A barrel of diesel used to cost about $25 more than the oil it came from. Now that premium over oil has crossed $100. Diesel prices s
These Aren't the Rate Hikes You're Looking For (opens the original)
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“These aren’t the droids you’re looking for.” ~ Obi-Wan Kenobi, Star Wars (1977)Bottom Line Upfront: The Fed talked like a hawk coming into this meeting and then sat on its hands, holding rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting even as inflation runs above its self-imposed 2% target for a fifth year. In our view, the long end of the curve is delivering the real message: the U.S. fiscal path is unsustainable, and the Fed risks losing control of the curve. History offers
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