HeyJaredVIETNAM UNCOOKED
Economics and policy analysis from Hanoi. High school student asking questions the government won't: What's Vietnam's real growth rate when you subtract the costs? Weekly takes on development, infrastructure, markets, and the gap between what gets announc
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- Aug 1, 2026
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- Jul 13, 2026
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Is Vietnam Winning the Trade War? (opens the original)
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Part 1 measured how much foreign capital entered Vietnam. This section asks a more revealing question: what does that capital do once it arrives? A dollar of foreign direct investment is not a fixed quantity of benefit. Two dollars bearing the same label can leave behind opposite impacts, one a rooted industrial base, the other a customs formality.The aggregate flatters. Roughly $150 billion realized across six years, with manufacturing absorbing 68% of it. But an aggregate reports volume, not c
Is Vietnam Winning? (opens the original)
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The first half of this piece showed that much of Vietnam’s export boom is Chinese production relabeled and shipped onward. That arrangement holds only as long as the United States permits it. This continuation asks what happens when it stops, and what Hanoi is doing about it.The FDI that flooded in after 2018 carried an unspoken condition: Vietnam had to stay useful, and staying useful meant staying outside the tariffs aimed at China. That condition had an expiry date. As Vietnam climbed the inc
Is Vietnam Winning? (opens the original)
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When the opening shots of the 2018 U.S-China trade war were fired, investors did what they did best. They panicked and fled. Dozens of companies relocated south, and Vietnam suddenly became the new hotspot for FDI. Their export numbers went from steadily growing to breaking the roof. But is Vietnam truly adding value to the product, or is it doing no more than money laundering?The numbers are clear: Vietnam’s exports to the U.S. and imports from China are more closely linked than investors are t
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