HeyJaredUnderstanding the unseen
Making sense of a noisy, uncertain world with the author of 'The Rules of Contagion' and 'Proof'
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 12
- Latest publication
- Sep 17, 2026
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- Jul 13, 2026
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Alzheimer’s isn’t like you imagine (opens the original)
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We’ve had a lot of Alzheimer’s in our family. Some had the disease late in life; others tragically early. In recent years, I’ve been helping to care for another relative with a diagnosis. And it’s taught me a lot of things that I didn’t properly appreciate before, about what dementia does and doesn’t look like.So I thought I’d share some of them, in case someone you know ends up with the disease – after all, there are <a href="https://www.alzheimers.org.uk/blog/how-many-people-have-dementi
Confounded by confounders (opens the original)
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People have been trying to work out better methods for understanding whether one thing causes another for centuries. But can the reasoning power of modern large language models help us untangle cause and effect better than before? First, let’s look at the core problem we need to solve. If we want to understand whether one thing causes another, one of the biggest headaches is confounding. For example, in the 1940s people incorrectly thought ice cream consumption caused people to be more susceptib
How much did heat and altitude affect World Cup scoring rates? (opens the original)
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So we’ve reached the end of what has been a desert-like summer in much of Europe. Among the hosepipe bans and cancelled school events and nationwide alerts about not accidentally setting the country on fire, on the slightly cooler days, I would drop my son off to the dusty, yellow pitches of a local summer football camp.Heat was a big talking point at the World Cup too, alongside altitude. It wasn’t the first time players had to endure conditions that most would be tempted to sit out. In a piece
What I learned from digging into 3 years of Substack data (opens the original)
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Like many people on Substack, I’ve been a bit puzzled about where visibility and growth does – or doesn’t – come from on this platform. In particular, after a bump in numbers that seemingly came out of nowhere in late 2024 and early 2025, my followers have been increasingly steadily. And yet subscribers have not.Is this down the new Notes algorithm? Changing recommendations? My rubbish writing? Something else?<a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/
Ten reasons your vibe-coded dashboard looks terrible (opens the original)
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I have some strong opinions on graphic design. Part of this is down to my family background (a father who works in art and design, a great-uncle who was a painter), part school (A* in GCSE art and GCSE graphic design), and part down to professional experience (I’ve produced thousands of scientific graphics and co-designed dozens of production websites and web apps).Although I’m not as qualified to opine as a full-time designer, my experience has given me a lot of insights into why and when desig
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