HeyJaredTrend & Trigger, by Trading Volatility
We connect macro narratives, technical trends, and options flow signals into trades you can act on.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
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- Sep 26, 2026
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- Aug 19, 2026
Latest issues
Selling Micron’s earnings premium without selling the upside (opens the original)
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The richest options on the board are upside calls, so a bullish trade can sell them, as long as every short leg is capped.Micron reports fiscal Q4 results after the close on Wednesday, Sept 30. The Oct 2 weekly options carry the event, and on Friday’s close they looked expensive next to the stock’s quiet last month. The question for this post: if you’re bullish into the print, can you get paid for that premium instead of paying it?<div class="sub
Pricing a 25–40% crash: what the SPX board charges, and how I’d hedge it (opens the original)
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Cem Karsan put a hard number on his bear case in a recent interview: a 25% to 40% decline in the S&P 500 within roughly a seven-month window. I’m not here to argue the call. I want to answer two narrower questions. What is the options market charging for that outcome right now? And if you’re long SPY and take the thesis seriously, what’s the most efficient way to position for it?Short answer: buy the moderately priced part of the put curve, sell
The index says avoid. Nine stocks say buy. (opens the original)
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Our 23-name personal positioning board, which consists of the S&P 500, major sectors, and tech names, is telling two stories at once.<img alt="" class="sizing-normal" height="1175" src="https://subst
The Positioning Map - Aug 31 (opens the original)
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Sector SnapshotCorrelations across equities is at a multi-decade low, meaning that stocks are expected to move independently of one another. This is a sharp contrast against a widely bullish market where “everyone’s a winner.” This is quickly observed in the 30-day price charts across key sectors of the S&P 500, from our personalized dashboard, below.Trend & Trigger, by Trading Volatility is a rea
The Permission Gap (opens the original)
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What artificial intelligence can do to a job is a question of engineering. What it will be allowed to do is a question of law, liability, unions, and politics. The distance between the two is where the next decade actually gets decided.This interactive graph maps out 1,016 jobs from BLS OEWS May 2025 national employment in order to highlight the nuance of the AI job replacement debate.AI job replacement requires both 1) a Technical hurdle and 2) a S
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