HeyJaredToby Crabel
Reflections and research from Toby Crabel — blending decades of trading experience with curiosity about markets, risk, and the art of disciplined decision-making.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 16
- Latest publication
- Sep 28, 2026
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- Jul 31, 2026
Latest issues
THE BOOK OF ESSENTIAL PATTERNS (opens the original)
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A Language of Market BehaviorA useful quantitative concept must be capable of being wrong. If every failed test can simply be renamed after the fact, nothing has been learned.Parts One through Three set out the patterns and the measurements. Part Four used them to construct a trade.The Short List as a Language of Market BehaviorThe greatest value of this short list may ultimately be linguistic rather than predictive. Technical analysis requires a l
THE 2022 BEAR MARKET AND BOTTOM (opens the original)
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This piece traces the 2022 bear market in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, from the January top through the September low, and the recovery that followed into the October 2023 test. Effort versus result, the relationship between range and volume, marks each of these turning points before they become obvious in price alone. The three charts below show the weekly Dow across 2021, 2022, and 2023 in full; the sections that follow walk through the specific bars and readings that define the top, the
GANN’S BALANCE OF PRICE (opens the original)
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This concept was developed by W.D. Gann in the early 1900s. It is a valid concept: in a trend, pullbacks often carry equal magnitude in price. This holds more often intraday than it does across time. Here is an example in the Nasdaq for today’s overnight session. There were two pullbacks prior to a rally of 22 higher 15-minute bar lows. This is a low-risk trade at the equal size pullback in (2-3). The (0-1) pullback through the open of the primary session provided the reference point.<a class="i
The Book of Essential Patterns (opens the original)
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Constructing the TradeA pattern can have considerable trading value even when its unconditional forecasting ability is modest. It can define where a hypothesis is tested and where the market proves it wrong.Part One set out the short list and the single bar readings. Part Two measured contraction and expansion with BNR and BWR. Part Three moved from bars to waves and showed how the patterns combine.Using the Patterns to Construct Tr
The Book of Essential Patterns (opens the original)
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From Bars to WavesA higher low changes a bar relationship. A higher swing low changes a wave relationship. Repeated higher swing lows begin changing the trend.Part One set out the short list and the single bar readings. Part Two measured contraction and expansion across multiple bars with BNR and BWR.Subscribe now<spa
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