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This Is Not Investment Advice

Featured on FT Alphaville. Essays on markets, technology and economic reality. Exploring incentives, capital allocation and the forces shaping the modern economy.

Newsletter · By Les Barclays · Official site

Indexed issues, last 90 days
4
Latest publication
Sep 29, 2026
Audience
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Earliest in this view
Jul 14, 2026

Latest issues

  1. Issue · Sep 29, 2026

    Aston Martin’s Creditors Get Taken for a Ride (opens the original)

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    Welcome!Aston Martin and bankruptcies are a match made in hell at this point as this is their 6th bankruptcy since its founding. A large part of British automaker heritage is bankruptcy, or at least flirting with it.They recently raised £550mm in new structurally senior financing from HPS, which was supported by an IP transfer to a non-guarantor Cayman subsidiary with a simultaneous transfer of majority non-auto IP and is now facing challenges from secured creditors who are pursuing US discovery

  2. Issue · Sep 10, 2026

    Suffering from Success: Semiconductors Edition (opens the original)

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    Trouble viewing this email? Click the ‘read in app’ button or ‘view in browser’ link above.Welcome back!Taiwan’s economy has defied expectations in recent times. Recently, they posted a staggering 12.92% real GDP growth in Q2 2026, one of the highest growth rates for any advanced economy worldwide, even beating out other emerging economies like India and Vietnam. Aided by a surge in semiconductor and related AI server sales from TSMC, UMC and more, the economy had p

  3. Issue · Aug 12, 2026

    A BrAIve New World for Credit (opens the original)

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    Welcome back!Credit markets are playing a more central role in financing AI since we’ve entered the “show me the money” phase of the AI theme and it’s reshaping credit markets. The hyperscalers are tapping public and private debt markets to plug the gap for funding AI infrastructure as cash flows dip into negative territory. Borrowers have optionality vis-à-vis financing as lenders race to fund the AI buildout - so much so it’s the driving force behind the rise in global corporate bond issuance,

  4. Issue · Jul 14, 2026

    The Mechanics of ARR Loans (opens the original)

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    Recurring revenue loans allow SaaS and subscription businesses to borrow against the predictability of their recurring revenue streams, rather than relying on old-school metrics like EBITDA.There’s a reason lenders prefer ARR to EBITDA. High-growth SaaS and tech companies are notorious for burning cash upfront to chase growth, so EBITDA is often negative by design. What matters more to lenders is the reliability of those recurring revenue streams, which gives them comfort even when the P&L is a

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