HeyJaredTheShortBear Vault
The Short Bear Vault. Contrarian, systematic trading research from a trader profiled in Market Wizards: The Next Generation. Equity deep-dives with the data behind them, the setups I'm tracking, and the backtests that support them.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 6
- Latest publication
- Sep 28, 2026
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- Earliest in this view
- Jul 7, 2026
Latest issues
A roadmap (opens the original)
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As I continue to work through the dozens of questions you have asked me to cover through the Q&A articles, I wanted to take some time this weekend to break down how I feel about markets at this moment and how I am positioning. Before looking forward, it's worth looking back. I covered my view on semiconductors and the broader market in two earlier posts: Trade overview: The great rotation on July 1st, which laid out the thesis, and the follow-up <a href="https:/
Pyramiding (opens the original)
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Pyramiding has been mischaracterized, misused and through it has been made more difficult than it needs to be. Today I will try and bring clarity on this topic. To do so we will create some models, look at data and examples, while discussing how the best traders and investors used this tool to profit.Let us delve into it. Read more
Market Wizards Q&A Nr.2 (opens the original)
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Good afternoon everyone, I thought we would get into the next batch of questions and focus in on some risk related questions. Last time we covered adaptation, the move from flat size to dynamic sizing, and what a drawdown actually costs you. In this post we will look deeper into all of this and look at models, principles but also some of my personal trading data underneath all of it: How I grade, bet, how I bucket risk across a book, and how I decide the total amount of risk I am allowed to carr
Wall Street's $16,000,000 Disappearing Act (opens the original)
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An increasing amount of profits and exits are being created by the biggest firms in the world using your funds. Today I want to go more in depth in regards to the usage of pension and insurance funds to fund the missing liquidity big institutions and companies need. Without knowing it, your money has been used to fund their gain. I started noticing this pattern earlier this year, and SpaceX is what made it undeniable.For a decade, SpaceX was liquid exactly twice a year, capped, company-priced te
Trade overview: Semiconductor short (opens the original)
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Two weeks ago, I laid out a clear macro-to-micro framework: the most crowded trade on the Street had shifted firmly into global semiconductors and cracks were starting to appear. Today I thought we would look at my execution through the trade, mistakes I made, what I could have done better, what hints and alpha/edge moments came along the way to allow for this great contrarian trade.The blog post in question in case you missed it:The main thesis: A short recap.Semi conductors were and still are
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