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Forward Guidance Is Dead. Long Live the Reaction Function (opens the original)
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On both sides of the Atlantic, skepticism about forward guidance has become almost an emerging consensus. The idea that a central bank should provide indications about its future policy decisions became especially prominent when interest rates were close to zero. Today, however, the term is increasingly treated as a relic of an exceptional period—and sometimes almost as a taboo.The Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh has deliberately reduced its use of forward-looking language. The retreat goes be
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