HeyJaredThe Working Thesis
The Working Thesis is an audio-first market journal about testing macro investment theses against real-world evidence. We don’t try to predict markets.
- Indexed videos, last 90 days
- 112
- Latest publication
- Oct 1, 2026
- Audience
- ~37 subscribers
- Earliest in this view
- Jul 5, 2026
Latest videos
Micron Got Paid. The 30-Year Hit a 2026 High. | September 30 (opens the original)
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#MU #CEG #AMZN #SNPS #GOOG #CBOE #BE #GLW #VRT #AAPL #MSFT #NVDA #MDB #SNOW #XLK Micron got paid. After Wednesday's close it reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $54.23 billion, nearly five times the $11.32 billion of a year earlier, and $33.20 billion of adjusted free cash flow in one quarter. Hours earlier, inflation came in below forecasts, and the 30-year Treasury still closed at 5.64%, its highest close of 2026. So who is paying for the wait? The morning relief faded. The S&P 500 was u
The Data Softened. The 30-Year Didn't. | September 29 (opens the original)
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#MDB #SNOW #GLW #BE #AAPL #NVDA #ORCL #META #LITE #MU #SOXX #XLU Tuesday's two macro tells both came in soft. Consumer confidence fell to 81.9 from 88.6, and August job openings dropped to 7.079 million, below the 7.225 million expected in a Reuters poll. The 2-year Treasury yield fell 3 basis points to 4.89%. The 30-year rose 3 basis points to 5.59%. If softer data doesn't make long-term money cheaper, who pays for the wait? The surface was quiet: S&P 500 −0.17% to 7,670.84, Nasdaq Composite −0
Meta Hired MongoDB's CEO. MongoDB Fell 18%. | September 28 (opens the original)
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#MDB #META #NVDA #AMD #BA #GFI #BE #ORCL #MU #SOXX #GDX #XLV MongoDB's CEO, CJ Desai, stepped down on Monday, effective immediately, to take a senior role at Meta. In the same announcement MongoDB reaffirmed its Q3 and fiscal 2027 guidance, and the stock still fell 18.46% to $334.68 on 8.77 times its prior-20-session average volume. Dev Ittycheria, CEO from 2014 to 2025, returns as interim CEO. Investor Day is Tuesday. If the next two quarters did not change, what did? Picture a head coach who l
Copilot and Muse Are Here. The Data Centers Are Running Late. | September 25 (opens the original)
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#AKAM #MSFT #META #ORCL #BE #COST #DELL #MU #COIN This week AI stopped being a demo. Microsoft published the new Copilot, rebuilt around Home, Code and Autopilot. Meta's Muse, live since September 8, runs errands across mail, calendar, payments and shopping. Dell is shipping Gemini inside the XPS Googlebook. Then Akamai showed what serving it costs. Its September 24 release announced an $11.6 billion commitment from Anthropic over seven years — CPU compute, not GPUs, because agents that act load
Trump–Xi’s Red-Carpet Summit: Is Managed Competition the New Baseline? | September 24 (opens the original)
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#META #INTC #AMD #ARM #ORCL #KGC President Donald Trump personally greeted President Xi Jinping at the aircraft stairs at Joint Base Andrews on Wednesday evening. CNBC reported it was Trump's first trip to the base to welcome a foreign leader during his presidency. It was rare, elevated protocol—not the first presidential airport welcome in U.S. history. The ceremony matters because stabilization does not have to wait for a grand bargain. Direct leader contact and an absence of escalation can lo
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~37 subscribers
Measured Sep 19, 2026
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