HeyJaredThe Variant View
Value investing and special situations driven by a behavioural edge in mispriced large caps and event-driven options. Unconstrained by industry convention. Comfortable diverging from consensus opinion.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 6
- Latest publication
- Sep 15, 2026
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- Earliest in this view
- Aug 3, 2026
Latest issues
Cross Timbers Royalty Trust ($CRT): An O&G Croupier with Dormant Asset and Catalyst Optionality. (opens the original)
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IntroductionThis post is a collaboration between myself and Athelas Research, an analyst and writer on Substack and X. I recommend subscribing to his publication for high-quality, niche analysis.Athelas’ post, Royalty Trust Renaisance (worth reading bef
Cipher Pharmaceuticals ($CPH.TO) Q2’26 Quarterly Earnings Review. (opens the original)
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IntroductionCipher recently released its Q2’26 operating results on 11 August 2026. At first glance, the headlines figures were somewhat discouraging. Net income decreased 32%; adjusted EBITDA decreased 10%; earnings per share decreased 30%; and total revenues decreased 10% relative to Q2’25. However, these figures are misleading. Their superficiality obscures far more important developments that occurred during the quarter. In this post, I will briefly set out the key developments that occurred
Domo Inc ($DOMO): A Positively Skewed Special Situation. (opens the original)
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Options are priced lowest when recent volatility has been very low. In my experience, however, the single best predictor of future increases of volatility is low historical volatility. When volatility gets very low in a market, we consider that a very interesting time to start looking for ways to get long volatility, both because volatility is very cheap in an absolute sense and because the market certainty and complacency reflected by low volatility often implies an above-average probability of
Texas Pacific Land Corp ($TPL): Evolution (opens the original)
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“When John Deere was faced with the arrival of the automobile, he left steel plows behind and began making tractors. They rolled with the changes. I guess we're just going to have to do the same too" — Rip Wheeler, Yellowstone. IntroductionRecent developments at Texas Pacific Land Corp (“TPL”) have some shareholders understandably spooked. On the face of things, TPL’s management have done something that would send a cold shiver down John Dutton’s spine: they sold the land. But
Keweenaw Land Association ($KEWL): Capital-Light Mineral Portfolio Optionality (opens the original)
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Investment Thesis Summary Keweenaw Land Association (“KLA”) is a speculative, pre-production mineral estate and royalty portfolio manager. KLA owns approximately 1.05 million net mineral acres in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula and controls roughly 262,000 additional acres through leases, management agreements, and alliances. KLA’s primary objective is to enhance and realise the value of its mineral rights portfolio. It achieves this by aggregating acres into contiguous plots; developing and acquirin
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