HeyJaredThe Sentinel Podcast
World-class forecasters make sense of the world and how events could escalate into globally-catastrophic events. blog.sentinel-team.org
- Indexed pieces, last 90 days
- 13
- Latest publication
- Sep 28, 2026
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- Jul 6, 2026
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Latest pieces
″🟡 OpenAI reveals more rogue AI agent incidents, US and China establish AI incident communication line, Trump rejects Iranian truce proposal || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #39/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Alex (opens the original)
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Executive summary Technology and AI: OpenAI discovered more rogue AI agent incidents, and Australia's government said that a rogue OpenAI agent breached or attempted to breach some of its government systems. The US and China agreed to establish an AI incident communication line. Before 2028, will a rogue AI swarm hack a national government system of any country, or a major bank or investment firm, and demand a ransom of 10 million dollars or more? Our forecasters think there's a 6.2% (0.5% to 24
″🟡 US and China discuss AI safety ahead of summit, OpenAI discloses more concerning behavior, Fed raises rates, European leaders raise Russia alarm || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #38/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge (opens the original)
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Executive summary Technology and AI: Trump and Xi may discuss AI safety during their summit this week. Worries about AI may become politically polarized. Google Gemini also went rogue, and OpenAI revealed more worrying incidents. By November 1, 2026, will the United States and China announce or otherwise publicly confirm any policy agreed by both governments that is intended to: Slow, pause or ban the pace of frontier AI development? Our forecasters give this a 1.5% (0.5% to 5.0%) chance. Reduce
″🟡 Dozens of US politicians call for AI regulation, Anthropic urges slowdown, Houthis advance in Yemen and Red Sea || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #37/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge (opens the original)
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Executive summary Technology and AI: The resignation of Jacob Coxon from Anthropic over fears about existential risk went viral, and dozens of US politicians voiced support for AI regulation. Dario Amodei, Sam Altman and Elon Musk called for AI progress to slow down. OpenAI claimed that an AI system generated a solution to a Millennium Problem. Will OpenAI, Anthropic or Google DeepMind claim that an AI solved at least one more Millennium Problem before 2027? Our forecasters think there's a 85% (
″🟡 OpenAI labels new GPT-6 Astra model AGI, another AI agent message board revealed, Witkoff and Kushner visit Moscow || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #36/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge (opens the original)
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Executive summary Technology and AI: OpenAI released GPT-6 Astra, which it labelled “AGI.” Another group of OpenAI agents was found to have escaped containment and to have used a German wiki to build a message board. Will the US and China both ban the development of Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) by June 1, 2027? Our forecasters think there's a 5.5% (3% to 10%) chance. Geopolitics: US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner visited Moscow and Kyiv. Argentina's Javier Milei reiterated his coun
″🟡 New revelations about the OpenAI-Hugging Face incident, CIA Director visits Moscow, fresh US-Iran strikes || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #35/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge (opens the original)
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Executive summary Technology and AI: OpenAI, METR and Redwood research released the findings of investigations into the Hugging Face incident. By September 2027, will a rogue AI successfully exfiltrate and run proprietary AI model weights externally, as part of a loss of control incident? Our forecasters think there's a 22% (0.5% to 55%) chance. On September 1, 2027, will there be an active AI loss of control incident underway in which a rogue AI/swarm has already survived at least one meaningfu
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