HeyJaredThe Pollara Substack
Polls and analysis to help you understand Canada and Canadians
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 14
- Latest publication
- Sep 30, 2026
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- Earliest in this view
- Jul 9, 2026
Latest issues
Mambo Numéro Cinq (opens the original)
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There are vote splits. And then there are vote splits. Five parties in the Quebec election are all polling in double digits. Bonne chance to the seat projectors!Seat projections aren’t the only thing the crowded race complicates. Your typical message box is now a 5 x 5 grid. Run an attack ad against your opponent, and you could be pushing votes in four different directions. A vein diagram of intersecting voter pools would have 32 numbers on it.Pollara dipped our toes into Quebec last week, and m
The Final Countdowns (opens the original)
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There are two countdowns underway in Quebec. The first ends on October 5, when voters choose a government. The second may begin that night, if the Parti Québécois wins and Paul St-Pierre Plamondon claims a mandate to move toward another referendum on independence. Those clocks are connected. They are not keeping the same time.Our latest Quebec study shows the PQ leading the provincial race with 29 per cent of decided voters. The Quebec Liberal Party and the Coalition Avenir Québec are essentiall
Stuck in the Middle with You (opens the original)
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Now that Parliament has resumed, Canadians will once again be bombarded with policy debates, attempted wisecracks, failed and effective one-liners, ritual outrage and all the familiar pageantry of parliamentary theatre.Question Period will generate clips designed for the evening news and social media. Government announcements will be answered by opposition denunciations. Every exchange will be treated, at least briefly, as the moment that changed the political conversation. And, as research sugg
I Shaw The Sign (opens the original)
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The last time the Alberta NDP flipped a riding in a byelection was 1966 in Pincher Creek, of all places. The momentum from that one carried them to government a mere 51 years later. So, yeah, it would be premature for Naheed Nenshi to buy purple drapes for the Premier’s office. It’s just one byelection. And media polls still show Smith in the lead.But byelections can be a sign of how voters are feeling and this one is a big flashing “WARNING” sign for Danielle Smith. <a class="image-link image2"
Good Vibrations (opens the original)
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Emotion drives decisions more than rational, cognitive thought. Politicians win elections when they tap into public sentiment, not because voters compare and contrast platforms. Decisions on where to go for dinner, or even who to date or what house to buy, often come down to a feeling more than anything else.There was a heated debate this spring among economists, pundits, and politicians on whether or not Canada was in a recession. My view at the time was this was irrelevant, because it felt to
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