HeyJaredThe Philosopher Investor
Markets since 2014. Built AI-powered systems to identify mispricings before the crowd sees them. Stoic philosophy keeps me disciplined. Weekly trade ideas.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 12
- Latest publication
- Sep 27, 2026
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- Earliest in this view
- Jul 26, 2026
Latest issues
Fear Moved to Bonds (opens the original)
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Hello my friends,On Wednesday the 10-year Treasury yield jumped 15 basis points to 5.11%, the highest since 2007. It closed the week at 5.18%. The trigger was a September business survey that ran at its fastest pace since July 2021, with input costs pushed up by energy. The same day, Fed governor Michael Barr said more hikes are likely. Polymarket now prices the odds of another hike this year at 90.5%.The Nasdaq-100 closed at a record on Tuesday and finished the week up 3.3%. The equal-weight S&
The Index Is Fine. 70% of Its Stocks Are Not. (opens the original)
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Hello my friends,On Wednesday the Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023, 25 basis points to 3.75 to 4.00%, on a 12 to 0 vote. Kevin Warsh said inflation had been too high for too long, and 16 of the 18 officials around the table wrote down at least one more hike this year. On Friday, in Tokyo, the Bank of Japan followed with its own 25 basis points, to 1.25%, on a split 7 to 2 vote.Nothing that landed between the two meetings argued for a pause. August retail sales came in at +1.2% a
A Fed Hike Is Now 80% Certain. Nine Sectors Already Paid for It. (opens the original)
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Hello my friends,Core CPI came in hot on Friday September 11 and a hike at Wednesday’s Fed meeting went from a coin flip to 80%. (on polymarket)<img alt="" class="sizing-normal" height="704" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!
new in the app: the options stat sheet (opens the original)
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Hello my friends,One feature today, the newest in the app: the options stat sheet. One line per name, every night: realized and implied volatility, put/call on the day’s volume and on open interest, max pain. About 2,100 names with real options flow, the S&P 500, the ETFs and the index options. It comes from a table I have followed for years.It is live now in the app for paid subscribers.Link: app.thephilosopherinvestor.com/options-stats.<a class="image-link image2 is-viewabl
what changed in the app since July (opens the original)
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Hello my friends,The last time I wrote to you about the app was July 16, when Congress trades landed. Since then we shipped more than a hundred updates. Here are the ten that matter most, biggest first. Every clip is the live app.1. NEW: the chart, rebuilt
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