HeyJaredThe Nowcast (and other thoughts on the economy)
Interested in what's going on in the US economy? My Nowcast of the US economy will help you sort out what today's data actually means.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 12
- Latest publication
- Sep 28, 2026
- Audience
- Checking…
- Earliest in this view
- Jul 13, 2026
Latest issues
Investment is a little weaker (opens the original)
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<img alt="" class="sizing-normal" height="727" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cc-5!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe1cdd7a6-d65d-4e9a-8786-0af470e55320_2574x1286.pn
Is the economy passing the speed limit? (opens the original)
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<img alt="" class="sizing-normal" height="727" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!htbw!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F38e7a55d-624c-4898-ab3f-2a298150b72d_2574x1286.pn
Higher inflation cuts the forecast (opens the original)
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<img alt="" class="sizing-normal" height="727" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JKB4!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd50c80d3-eccc-4b75-8e16-c4a2de6822db_2574x1286.pn
Topline growth still weak, but more clarity (opens the original)
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<img alt="" class="sizing-normal" height="727" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!TzYv!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F044c8e3c-904e-4f46-965a-3e0ce11d6e3a_2574x1286.pn
Looks worse than it is (opens the original)
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The headline is ugly: the forecast for GDP growth fell from 3.1% to 1.2% in one week. That’s the difference between a super quarter and a subpar quarter. Admittedly, with immigration enforcement shrinking the labor force, 1.2% isn’t all that bad. But if that is really the economy’s long-term potential, the US faces some really difficult choices in the coming years.But there is good news. The decline in the forecast is driven entirely by one thing: the advance international trade numbers. Interna
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