HeyJaredThe Nasdaq Playbook
Documenting a three-module TQQQ system in public. Every signal, every scenario and every allocation decision, written down as it happens. Not investment advice.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 15
- Latest publication
- Sep 30, 2026
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- Aug 16, 2026
Latest issues
📊 Five Stocks Carried the Nasdaq 100 in September. That Is Less Scary Than It Sounds. (opens the original)
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Between the close on August 31 and the close on September 29, 2026, the Nasdaq 100 gained 3.0 percent. Its equal-weighted twin, which holds the same companies at roughly 1 percent each, lost 1.3 percent. Only 45 of the 98 stocks in QQQ finished the period higher, and the median member was down 1.9 percent.Run Invesco's QQQ holdings from September 28 through the month's price moves and the arithmetic gets blunt. Five stocks (AMD, Meta, Intel, Micron and Apple) account for an estimated 3.20 points
🎯 PCE Wednesday, Payrolls Friday, the Two Numbers That Actually Decide This. (opens the original)
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Last week I built up the wrong event. This week I'm not making that mistake twice, PCE Wednesday and payrolls Friday are the two numbers that actually decide whether this yield story keeps building or finally cools off.🗓️ The Week at a Glance📅 Mon Sep 28 Jefferies Financial Group reports, an early read on capital markets activity heading into the real action later in the week.📅 Tue Sep 29 Case-Shiller and FHFA home price data in the morning, followed by Consumer Confidence and August JOLTS job o
📈 5-Year Yield Hits 5% for the First Time Since 2007. Stocks Rallied Anyway. (opens the original)
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I spent all of last Saturday’s post building up Thursday’s Trump-Xi meeting as the thing to watch. In the end, the market barely cared what actually came out of it.The summit happened as scheduled, a state dinner Thursday with a genuinely notable guest list of American tech leaders sitting alongside Trump and Xi, then a tea session and a National Archives visit Friday to close things out. Both sides said the right things, Trump talked about building a relationship that promotes prosperity and se
🎯 The Whole Week Hinges on Thursday, and It's Not an Economic Report. (opens the original)
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No Fed meeting this week, for once. Instead the whole thing hinges on whether two men in a room Thursday can find a reason to de-escalate instead of dig in.🗓️ The Week at a Glance📅 Mon Sep 21 A genuinely light start. No major data or earnings of note. After the Fed drama of the past two weeks, I think everyone’s just glad for one quiet Monday.📅 Tue Sep 22 ADP’s weekly employment read in the morning. Earnings: Thor Industries, AutoZone, and KB Home, a decent little cr
📈 Sold Off Wednesday, Ripped 1.7% Thursday, Gave Some Back Friday (opens the original)
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The Fed actually did it this time.After a full year of hike odds swinging back and forth on every jobs report and every Fed official’s passing comment, Wednesday wasn’t speculation anymore. The Fed raised rates 25 basis points, its first hike in three years, and the accompanying language suggested most committee members think another one could be coming. Kevin Warsh reportedly arrived at the Fed with a roadmap aimed at lowering borrowing costs over time. His first real move as Chair was the oppo
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