HeyJaredThe Fourth Turning Point
Independent macro, geopolitical, and electoral analysis with disclosed positions and a public track record.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 11
- Latest publication
- Sep 27, 2026
- Audience
- Checking…
- Earliest in this view
- Jul 16, 2026
Latest issues
Where the Senate Map Stands (opens the original)
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It started with counting.I don’t know why. It was late. I had exactly 501 tabs open on my phone, and counting felt just a little bit more productive than sleeping.Texas 15. Michigan 13. Ohio 11. Iowa 11. New Hampshire 10. Georgia 10. North Carolina 11. Idaho 10. Kansas 20. Maine 12. Alaska 7. Minnesota 10. Florida 13. South Carolina 11. South Dakota 5.
Seven States. Five Wins. One Senate. (opens the original)
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Part II of “The Map Is Moving: My Complete 2026 Senate Forecast.”Here’s Part 1:<img alt="" class="sizing-normal" height="734" src="https://subs
The Map Is Moving: My Complete 2026 Senate Forecast (opens the original)
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I Took a Break and Built a Senate Forecast<img alt="" class="sizing-normal" height="731" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lDf-!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.am
America Is Too Great to Be Led by Men This Small (opens the original)
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I’ve obviously been way quieter than usual lately. That means I’ve posted way less. Don’t worry the haters didn’t win. They never will.The truth is way simpler: I’m tired. I spent a year writing 142 articles. 142 articles * an average of ~2,250 words an article = a lot of fucking typing and research.I’m not depressed about politics at all, quite the opposite, and I’m certainly not ever giving up on writing, I’m just tired.Another poll, another race, another scan
The Standard Didn’t Change. Only the President Did. (opens the original)
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A few short years ago, under a different president, a certain group of Americans could not pass a gas station without blaming President Joseph R. Biden.They put stickers on gas pumps as if that was going to change anything. They posted gas prices every week like they had just earned a doctorate in crude oil. They acted as if the president personally owned every gas station and was responsible for each expensive gallon.Then came the standard that mattered far more.They also demanded that Presiden
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