HeyJaredThe Foresight Brief
Regular insights to help you think long-term, spot early signals, and make smarter decisions today for tomorrow's challenges. Join a community of forward-thinking leaders shaping the future with confidence.
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- Sep 17, 2026
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- Jul 16, 2026
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The Emotional Tax on Long-Term Thinking (opens the original)
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A new paper in the California Management Review — “Managing the Emotional Challenges of Structural Ambidexterity” by Timo Vuori and Michael Tushman — makes an argument I’ve been circling around for a while, usually from the foresight side rather than the organizational-behavior side: the reason companies struggle to hold their present and their future in the same hand isn’t primarily a strategy problem. It’s an emotion problem.Vuori and Tushman are writing about structural
Scenario Planning Is Growing Up — But Is Leadership Keeping Pace? (opens the original)
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The current special issue of the California Management Review (CMR) on scenario planning brings together four new studies that collectively map where the field is, where it’s working, and where it keeps falling short. Scenario planning is becoming more sophisticated: more rigorous analytically, more honest about its own limitations, more attentive to the psychological and cultural conditions that determine whether it actually changes anything.But read across these studies carefully, and a famili
Two Unlikely Messengers Are Making the Same Case for Foresight (opens the original)
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The UN and Nature don’t usually show up in the same argument. One writes in the register of governance frameworks and policy briefs. The other publishes some of the most rigorously reviewed empirical science in the world. When institutions that different converge on the same diagnosis, independently, in the same month, it’s worth asking why.<a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!a9kv!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubsta
When Future-Focused Leaders Freeze (opens the original)
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A new paper in Long Range Planning studied 100 family firms in Pakistan and asked a simple question: does a CEO’s relationship to time — whether they’re anchored in the past, absorbed in the present, or oriented toward the future — indicate whether the firm reinvents its business model in the light of high dynamics in the market.The past-focused finding is unsurprising. CEOs who cognitively live in “tried-and-true” recipes resist business model innovation, regardless of how turbulent the environ
It's here! (opens the original)
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You’ve been reading The Foresight Brief because you believe that understanding the future is a leadership responsibility, not a luxury.Today, I want to share something I’ve been working toward for a long time.Robust Leadership: Leading with Confidence into an Uncertain Future — the English edition, co-authored with Felix von Held — is now available via De Gruyter.<a class="image-l
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