HeyJaredThe Econolog
Cutting Through Chaos: Your Guide to a Shifting World. From financial markets to geopolitics and energy, I help you navigate the changes that matter.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 8
- Latest publication
- Sep 26, 2026
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- Earliest in this view
- Jul 4, 2026
Latest issues
The Saudi Gambit (opens the original)
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Dear readers,On March 18, 1969, the U.S. launched a secret tactical bombing campaign, Operation Menu, in eastern Cambodia. Its target: supply lines of the North Vietnamese Army (NVA) on the famous Ho Chi Minh Trail which supported the Viet Kong in South Vietnam. The operation unleashed pure chaos. Cambodia descended into civil war, and the power of the opposition force, the Khmer Rouge, expanded dramatically. Eventually they took over the country with catastrophic consequences. American personne
Quick Update – Gulf Escalation (opens the original)
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The Great Interest Rate War (opens the original)
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Dear readers,Bond market yields are back at levels last seen before the Global Financial Crisis. Yields on 30-year treasury bonds went above 5%, and 10-year treasury bonds are approaching that threshold quickly. Bond yields in other developed economies are rising even more quickly.On the face of it, there’s an obvious reason: the Iran War which cut off the supply of oil, gas, and other resources, pushing up inflation expectations. But there’s a much more fundamental driver of bond yields – a str
Revisiting - The World Is Running out of Flexibility (opens the original)
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Dear readers,At the end of May I wrote about my expectations how the summer months were going to play out in oil markets. My core thesis was that buffers built in global oil supply chains provided some flexibility for the global economy to adjust, but they were more limited than headline numbers implied. At the same time, geographical dislocations, transportation limits, and product mismatches were progressively cutting away on flexibility.The June ceasefire provided some breathing space and bot
The Comeback of Financial Alchemy (opens the original)
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Dear readers,When I got started in finance, bond investors were happy with the investment return of government bonds. Equity markets were driven by rigorous balance sheet analysis and cash flow models. Single-name options were the exotic frontier, and their liquidity was sparse. Pricing tables, spread between columns of strike prices and rows of maturity dates, were empty deserts. I punched in asking prices for my clients based on simple Black-Scholes models hoping some counterparty would pick t
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