HeyJaredThe Crude Chronicles
A blog about the financial history of the Oil & Gas 🛢 industry told through charts 📈 that go back 💯+ years.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 16
- Latest publication
- Sep 29, 2026
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- Aug 7, 2026
Latest issues
Doubt is Out. Optimism is In. 4Q26 Chart Pack (opens the original)
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My 4Q26 Macro Chart Pack (available below the paywall — 56 pages) is out, titled “Doubt is Out. Optimism is In.”Summary: Oil & Gas Cycles Move in Three Waves: “Doubt,” “Optimism” & “Parabolic Euphoria.” We believe 2026 marked the beginning of the Optimism wave for the sector.An image of the chart pack and sections discussed is below. <a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VIIz!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:st
"Optimism Is In" — 4Q26 Chart Pack Tomorrow (opens the original)
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Tomorrow I am publishing my 4Q26 O&G Macro Chart Pack titled “Doubt is Out. Optimism is In.”The great market technician Alan Shaw described markets (HERE) as moving in three waves, both up and down, briefly interrupted by consolidation periods.We saw this occur in oil & gas from 2008 to 2020, when the industry went through three cascading waves of lower highs and lower lows, as measured by returns on equity.<a class="image-link image2 is-v
Midterm Material Constraints (opens the original)
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The Gist: A refined product export ban would likely lead to lower refinery utilization because refiners are incentivized on profit growth and value creation (ROCE), not utilization or other growth metrics. They haven been so for over a decade. If domestic and fiscal policy become more constrained following the midterm elections, expect geopolitical developments to play a larger role in driving oil market volatility.I am releasing this post a day early due to the recent news surrounding a potenti
Boxing in oil (opens the original)
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Whether measured against prior cycles, monetary debasement trades, growth stocks, or marginal costs, every road leads to oil north of $200/bbl by the time this cycle peaks, likely in the mid-2030s with volatility along the way. Below, we apply these four independent approaches to estimate where oil prices ultimately settle.We put little credence behind demand and supply projections when identifying the long-term trends in oil prices because history shows that demand and supply growth always move
Fed Man Cometh (opens the original)
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The Gist: A career in energy and industrials has taught us never to fight the Fed. Historically, energy stocks have peaked roughly eight months after the first hike of an aggressive Fed tightening cycle, as tighter monetary policy and a stronger dollar slows the global credit cycle and, with it, oil prices. For now, stay long into the seasonal strength, but consider trimming into the spring of 2027.Just as O&G stock started getting their groove back central bankers around the world are beginning
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