HeyJaredThe Credit Strategist
A newsletter covering markets, finance, politics and culture since 2001.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
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- Oct 1, 2026
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[COPY] Missing the Target (opens the original)
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When the Federal Reserve sets its baseline interest rate (the Federal Funds rate) well below the real-world rate of inflation (and below understated government-measured inflation), it leaves the door open for above-trend inflation. It also creates incentives for economic actors to borrow and spend money on speculative and unproductive activities – those that don’t add to the productive capacity of the economy. And that is precisely what happened for years, certainly since the 2008-9 Great Financ
Missing the Target (opens the original)
Read excerpt
When the Federal Reserve sets its baseline interest rate (the Federal Funds rate) well below the real-world rate of inflation (and below understated government-measured inflation), it leaves the door open for above-trend inflation. It also creates incentives for economic actors to borrow and spend money on speculative and unproductive activities – those that don’t add to the productive capacity of the economy. And that is precisely what happened for years, certainly since the 2008-9 Great Financ
We’re Gonna Need A Bigger Boat (opens the original)
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For a place ostensibly filled with the smartest people in the world, Silicon Valley traffics in an enormous amount of bullsh*t. Only Wall Street and K Street give Sand Hill Road a run for its money in the willing suspension of disbelief. Financial bubbles are inflated by hot air and hot money. Two recent news reports illustrate some of the crazier claims on which investors are wagering billions if not trillions of dollars in an age of monetary and intellectual debauchment.Let’s start with a stor
CRWV's Debt Delusion (opens the original)
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Most investors might show concern about a company whose Form 10Q includes fifty (that is not a misprint - 50!) pages of “Risk Factors,” or discloses a debt/equity ratio of over 800% (including long-term debt and operating leases), or negative working capital of over $10 billion, or quarterly interest expense of $700 million on quarterly revenue of $2.6 … Read more
The Downside of Up (opens the original)
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In launching his fund in 2024, Situational Awareness L.P.’s then 22-year-old Leopold Aschenbrenner wrote: “But right now, there are perhaps a few hundred people, most of them in San Francisco and the AI labs, that have situational awareness. Through whatever peculiar forces of fate, I have found myself among them.” This hubris led Mr. Aschenbrenner, who lacked any meaningful investment experience or deep understanding of financial markets, to grow his fund to a reported $45 billion as of July 1s
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