HeyJaredThe Climate Brink
The Choice is Ours: Climate Disaster or a Sustainable Future
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- Sep 28, 2026
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The impacts of this year’s record-shattering El Niño (opens the original)
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The 2026-27 El Niño is on track to be the strongest event in the instrumental record. The latest (September 2026) runs of the 14 seasonal forecast models that I track over at the Climate Dashboard put the event’s peak at around 4.1C in the Niño 3.4 region (with the middle 80% of ensemble members between 3.4C and 4.6C), well above the prior record of 2.75C during the 2015-16 El Niño.1 <a class="button primary" href="https://www.theclimatebrink.com
My new NYT op-ed on climate change risk (opens the original)
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The world has made real progress in steering away from some of the darkest climate futures where global emissions doubled (or more) this century. But as David Wallace-Wells and I note in today’s New York Times, we are not out of the woods yet, and climate uncertainty is not our friend.Subscribe nowWe hear a lot about central outcomes of climate change. For example, under th
The Atmosphere Just Set a Water Vapor Record (opens the original)
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A few days ago, on an atmospheric sciences mailing list, Prof. Gary Lackmann pointed out that August 2026 set a record for the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. I thought this was right in TCB’s wheelhouse, so I’ve dug further into the numbers in this post.What does “precipitable water” mean?Precipitable water (abbreviated PWAT) is the water in the atmosphere that’s available to condense and fall as rain or snow. We quantify it by calculating how deep a puddle it would make if you condens
The Worst Case Is Still on the Table (opens the original)
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The Trump administration is continuing it’s war on climate science. This time, instead of attacking climate science in general, as they tried (and failed) to do with the DOE Climate Working Group, they are going after the U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA). Subscribe nowThe NCA is required at least every four years under the 1990 Global Change Resear
What we can and cannot say about climate change and the Nepal disaster (opens the original)
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On the morning of August 26th, part of a glacier cliff on the north face of Langtang Lirung (a ~7,200 meter peak 60 km north of Kathmandu) collapsed. The falling mass of ice and rock released energy equivalent to a magnitude 5.2 earthquake according to the USGS, and set off a debris flow that traveled ~100 km down into the Trishuli and Bhote Koshi rivers. This buried and washed away large parts of towns, severed the only highway between Nepal and China, and damaged at least six hydropower facili
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