The Baseball Nerd
The baseball analytics newsletter built on proprietary models. Advanced stats, breakout potential, fantasy baseball edge. Numbers, Not Feelings.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 24
- Latest publication
- Sep 29, 2026
- Audience
- Checking…
- Earliest in this view
- Sep 2, 2026
Latest issues
The Division Winners Earned It. The Wild Card Bats Might Steal It Anyway. (opens the original)
Read excerpt
Let me say the unpopular part first, because I have been saying it all year. A division title means something. Winning the division is the thing every team sets out to do in March, and the clubs that did it earned an authority that a wild card team, by definition, did not. If a wild card team were good enough, it would have won its own division. It didn’t. That is not an insult. It is just the standings telling you who cleared the bar and who snuck in the side door.<a class="image-link image2 is
The MLB Playoffs Are here. Here’s What the Numbers Say to Watch (opens the original)
Read excerpt
Six months and 162 games built the field. Now eight teams get three games to keep playing. The 2026 Wild Card Series starts Tuesday with Phillies-Braves, White Sox-Astros, Red Sox-Yankees and Cubs-Padres. Every series has a completely different problem hiding underneath it.Philadelphia survived Game 162, but had to use Zack Wheeler to do it. Now Chris Sale is waiting in Atlanta. Houston won the AL West at exactly .500. That record disappears Tuesday, but the flaws that produced it don’t. Boston
The Objectively Worst Division Winner in History (opens the original)
Read excerpt
Somewhere tonight, in Minneapolis or in Sacramento, a team with potentially a losing record is going to get handed a division title and a trip to October. In a full season, it has never happened. The two teams fighting over the ignominious distinction of doing it first, the Rangers and the Astros, are well aware of the history. The Astros can win the Title by winning. The Rangers need a win and a Houston loss, so they legitimately cannot simply win the Title.Forget the standings for a secondIf t
103 Wins. One 21-Year-Old Starter. No Playoffs. (opens the original)
Read excerpt
Dusty Baker, always mindful of what a rookie has to put up with in an MLB clubhouse, treated a rookie pitcher to dinner the night before the biggest start of the season. Tim Kurkjian later wrote that Dusty’s penchant for rookies led some of his players to be vocal, wanting veteran Dave Burba on the mound
Breaking Bad? Something’s Gotta Give? Big Jake? (opens the original)
Read excerpt
The American League West is dead. Oops. I meant to say a dead heat. I’ll leave it; it seems to fit. "I have never lied to you. I have always told you some version of the truth."The Astros and the Rangers are both 79-80 with three games left, tied for a division that has become the laughingstock for the American League. Every wild card is spoken for; the Yankees, the Red Sox, and the White Sox have all clinched. Neither of these two can reach one, so the division title is the only door either tea
Publishing over time
Last 90 days. Choose a month to open its work.
Recurring subjects
Named in the text we hold. One piece can cover several.
Audience
No verified audience measurement yet.
About this data
Counts cover the work we have indexed. Tone needs enough text and a confident classification. Excerpts and episode notes are not full articles or transcripts.
Identity or attribution wrong? Suggest a correction.