HeyJaredThe Alethea Narrative
A newsletter that searches for the truth in financial markets while understanding how narratives can help shape investment decisions. This newsletter is for family offices, wealth advisors, and investors who don’t have time to follow every macro twitch
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 7
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- Sep 30, 2026
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- Jul 13, 2026
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Echoes of 1987: The October Setup (opens the original)
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BOTTOM LINE UP FRONTOctober 1987 was a configuration, not a single shock: long-end yields rising all year, foreign selling of Treasuries (centered on Japan then, broader today), a new Fed chair tightening into an inflation scare, stretched equities, currency tension, and mechanical selling strategies that turned a decline into a cascade. Five of those six are active today in direction, though not in magnitude. The sixth, a falling dollar while long yields keep rising, is the missing gear. It is
The Spark: How AI Credit Could Reach the Strong Economy (opens the original)
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The SetupThe US economy is bifurcated. Headline strength is concentrated in the parts that do not feel interest rates: AI capex, government spending, and asset-rich households. The rate-sensitive economy is already strained. The consensus view is that the strong side can keep growing through higher rates because the AI buildout is funded by cash-rich megacaps. That view is incomplete. The core of the buildout is funded by cash flow, but its edges run on credit, and those edges are now under pres
The Bifurcation Problem (opens the original)
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Two Economies, One Policy RateThe US economy is sending contradictory signals. The September flash PMI hit a five-year high of 58.4, with hiring at its strongest since 2021. Yet payroll growth has been soft for the better part of 18 months. Both are true, because growth is concentrated in the parts of the economy that do not feel interest rates.■ The insulated economy. AI capex, funded at its core by cash-rich megacaps. Government spending, which does not respond to rates. Asset-rich households
The Second Derivative (opens the original)
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BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT■ The acceleration is real. GSG’s 12-month rate of change is +59% and still rising, with +13.1% in the past month alone. The ETF’s history offers two prior episodes near this level, 2008 and 2021-22. Both ended in broad risk asset damage.■ Each broke through a different channel. 2008 broke through credit while the Fed was cutting. 2022 broke through policy and real rates. The commodity surge was the backdrop both times, not the trigger. The work is i
THE NARROWING CORRIDOR (opens the original)
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe thesis in one sentence: every mechanism that absorbed the last several shocks is impaired at the same time, and the positioning that would amplify the next one has moved into rates, where the catalysts are.This memo does not forecast a shock. It argues that the consequence of one is now different from what recent experience has trained participants to expect. Three observations carry it.● Policy is accommodative, not restrictive.
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