HeyJaredTelok Ayer Macroeconomics
Providing Thought Provoking and Unbiased Views on Singapore and Asia Macro
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
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- Sep 4, 2026
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- Jul 17, 2026
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USD caught between oil and JPY in Markets This Week (opens the original)
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Oil prices surged again this week as the US struck Iranian targets, despite the USS Abraham Lincoln heading to Thailand for repairs. This is negative for EM Asian FX, with renewed risk-off sentiment likely to keep the USD supported.That said, I think the hot phase of the war is largely over. Both sides have depleted ammunition, while the IRGC appears to have gained greater control over decision-making, reducing the incentive for further escalation. This makes a pre-US mid-term resolution increas
Pretty Sad For An Economy So Strong: Singapore Economy Summarised (opens the original)
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Risk of S&P500 pullback rises in Markets This Week (opens the original)
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Markets have been more benign than I expected this week, but beneath the surface there has been some reorientation and repositioning. First, US CPI was the highlight, but came in line with expectations and should have limited market impact. Second, we are seeing some post-earnings IV crush while VIX remains benign, which could signal narrowing market breadth as macro drivers return to centre stage. This should bring more cross-asset correlation in the coming weeks. Third, Iran reshuffled several
IDR Headwinds Reflects Distortionary Elite Competition (opens the original)
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Warsh Confuses, Not Convinces Markets This Week (opens the original)
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This week was packed with blockbuster developments, although few genuinely surprised. The FOMC’s decision to hold rates was widely expected, but Warsh’s underwhelming performance during the post-meeting Q&A prompted a larger market reaction than the policy decision itself. In other words, the news largely met expectations, yet markets remained highly volatile. The only exception was probably the shock resignation of Bank Indonesia (BI) Governor Perry Warjiyo.MAS tightened policy this week, steep
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