HeyJaredSwiss Macro and History
Stefan Gerlach writes about monetary policy as it is actually practiced. Based in Zurich, he is Chief Economist at EFG Bank and a former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 10
- Latest publication
- Sep 28, 2026
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- Earliest in this view
- Aug 10, 2026
Latest issues
The SNB: The Next Move Is Up, But Not Yet (opens the original)
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Summary: The SNB left its policy rate at zero, as expected. Its inflation forecast gives it little reason to raise rates soon. But growth is solid, monetary policy remains expansionary, and the balance of risks has shifted. When the SNB eventually moves, it is more likely to raise rates than cut them.Thanks for reading Gerlach Macro Notes! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.<
When central banks say nothing at all (opens the original)
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The ECB Hikes Again (opens the original)
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Summary: The ECB raised rates last week because inflation is projected to remain above target for too long while the euro-area economy has proved surprisingly resilient. Stronger growth both increases the risk that the energy shock becomes more persistent and makes monetary tightening less costly.Thanks for reading Gerlach Macro Notes! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.<input cl
What Two-Year Yields Tell Us About Kevin Warsh (opens the original)
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Summary: How much have markets learnt about monetary policy under Kevin Warsh? I look at the largest daily moves in the US two-year Treasury yield this year and find that two of the biggest occurred at Warsh’s first FOMC meeting and after his Jackson Hole speech.Thanks for reading Gerlach Macro Notes! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.<input class="email-input" name="email
Take 2: The ECB’s 10,000 Words vs ChatGPT’s 1,000 (opens the original)
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Summary: The ECB has shortened its monetary policy account, but at almost 10,000 words it is still far too long. I again asked ChatGPT to reduce it to about 1,000 words — not as a serious alternative, but to illustrate how much can be cut without losing the main arguments.Some weeks ago, I argued that the ECB’s monetary policy accounts should be much shorter. The account of the June meeting ran to more than 12,000
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