HeyJaredStephen Clermont's Substack
Public Opinion Data and Analysis about the American political environment and 2024 election
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 7
- Latest publication
- Sep 23, 2026
- Audience
- Checking…
- Earliest in this view
- Jul 7, 2026
Latest issues
Independent Voters Hate Trump (opens the original)
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One of my clients has been challenging me and the other members of our team to do a deep dive on Independent voters to see what they will tolerate with Donald Trump. He can’t understand how any of them can support Trump and the things he does. This has led me to look into how much Independents have turned against him and the problems Republicans face this year as a result.Pollsters define Independents two ways:People who answer “Independent” to this question: “Generally speaking, do you think of
Unpopular America (opens the original)
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Last week was the 25th anniversary of the Al Qaeda terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. A lot has changed for the worse in America and around the globe in the years since, and that can be most seen in the shifts in public opinion.It is hard to describe the profound shift in attitudes in the weeks following the attacks. In America, there was a large surge in pride in the country and trust in government. In an October 2001 Gallup poll, 60% said they trust the federal gover
Trump 2026!! (opens the original)
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I am not sure when the Atlantic became a humor magazine. They recently featured a hilarious story about how President Trump is planning to finally tap his $400 million MAGA Inc. war chest to make the midterm elections all about him.Republican strategists are concerned about Trump’s low approval ratings and voter anxiety about the economy. One person familiar with the Oval Office strategy meeting put it this way: “When the issues that you typically campaign on don’t move voters—or voters are piss
What Voters Keep Telling Us (opens the original)
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I am in deep procrastination on about five projects, along with several follow-up emails I need to write. What better thing to do right now than send out hot takes on the primaries last night.In Wyoming, State Senator Eric Barlow beat Superintendent of Public Instruction Megan Degenfelder for the GOP nomination for Governor. Degenfelder got the Trump endorsement and lost by 15 percentage points.1 This struck me in the <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2026/08/18/trumps-pick-for-wyoming-gove
Congress Giving a Fair Shake to Crypto (opens the original)
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As a Democratic pollster, I spend a lot of my day looking at polling and other election data. The overload prevents me from spending a lot of time looking at other data, like financial data, except for schadenfreude days like yesterday when Tesla stock tanked1 and oil prices pushed over $100 per barrel.2 I spent some time on this amazing website (<a href="https://tradingeconomics.co
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