HeyJaredSteinerCapital
I cover FX, rates and cross-asset from a practitioner's desk — not a research department. Weekly playbooks, live positioning updates and the occasional uncomfortable opinion.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 22
- Latest publication
- Sep 30, 2026
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- Earliest in this view
- Sep 2, 2026
Latest issues
Session Wrap — 30.09.26 (opens the original)
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Elevator PitchToday’s tape looked calm on the surface, but the real story was buried in the yield curve, a bear steepener wearing an equity rally costume, with cracks showing up in breadth and in gold that the headline numbers completely paper over. FX had its own separate drama entirely, one currency ran away from the pack on a single offhand political remark, and there’s a genuinely useful lesson below on why chasing that move would have been the wrong call despite how tempting it looked in re
Session Wrap — 29.09.26 (opens the original)
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Elevator PitchToday didn’t fit into a single clean narrative, and that’s exactly what made it worth digging into. The RBA delivered its hike right on schedule, but the press conference tone left markets genuinely unsure whether to read the whole thing as hawkish or dovish, and the reaction underneath tells a very different story than the headline decision alone does. Layer on a commodity complex pulling in opposite directions and a curve move that doesn’t fit the usual playbook, and you get a se
Session Wrap — 28.09.26 (opens the original)
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Elevator PitchToday the broader market and FX were speaking two completely different languages. Equities and credit were in outright risk-off mode, VIX up nearly 7%, gold cratering over 3%, and Convertibles finally cracking after holding up as the one consistent bright spot through this entire multi-day selloff. FX, meanwhile, was telling its own story entirely, driven by renewed progress on the US-Iran talks rather than the broader risk tone, and tomorrow’s RBA decision adds yet another live wi
The 360° Playbook: Global Macro | 28th Sept-2nd Oct. 2026 (opens the original)
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IntroductionWelcome to the 360 Playbook. This series is designed to help you understand what markets are actually focused on heading into next week.The goal is to provide a disciplined lens for the sessions ahead, so that anyone managing a professional portfolio can stay ahead of the curve without getting pulled into unnecessary noise.Economic Cycle UpdateCurrent Q4 GDP projections come in at 2.59% on the NY Fed GDP Nowcast.<a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" href="https://substackcdn.c
Session Wrap — 24.09.26 (opens the original)
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Elevator PitchToday was the second straight session of the same story: yields ripping higher, the dollar going vertical, and oil adding fuel rather than fading. What makes this one genuinely worth reading in full is the alternative explanation for what’s actually driving it, because it isn’t the obvious one everyone else is running with, and there’s a very specific, very testable theory below about what the new Fed chair’s reaction function actually looks like right now. On top of that: an Aussi
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