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spaghettilisbon's desk view

hedge fund trader. rates, thematic equities. process based on: trend, fiscal flows and narrative.

Newsletter · By spaghettilisbon · Official site

Indexed issues, last 90 days
11
Latest publication
Sep 21, 2026
Audience
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Earliest in this view
Jul 10, 2026

Latest issues

  1. Issue · Sep 21, 2026

    Room to squeeze. (opens the original)

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    Good evening folks,What a wild day in markets once again. Good news is showing up on the diplomacy front, with Trump opening up to talks with the Iranians at the UN General Assembly in New York. This drove oil prices lower, with Brent at the time of writing hovering around $100. Same for TTF, with futures trading around 73.90, down 5.7 EUR on the day.Overall, this helps risk sentiment a lot across the board. We see both equities and bonds rallying: we currently have a positive stance on the 60/4

  2. Issue · Sep 16, 2026

    And there it goes (opens the original)

    Excerpt · Neutral tone

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    Good morning folks,It’s Fed day, and I guess it’s a good time to review the state of the markets and provide some color from my side.Let’s start with recent moves in the US, where we can clearly see the massive repricing that went through the SOFR curve.<source ty

  3. Issue · Sep 9, 2026

    ECB: at full gas (TTF) (opens the original)

    Excerpt · Neutral tone

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    Good afternoon folks,Tomorrow we will have the ECB which will raise the deposit rate to 2.50% as anticipated. We’ll see their updated projections, and we will know more about what they do expect. As of today, we just work with the data we have and observe what’s in front of us.First, pricing for the ECB is clearly aggressive. Looking at ESTR futures, we are pricing another 2 hikes coming with terminal rate around 3.05% in September 2027. Read more

  4. Issue · Aug 22, 2026

    On the US and the Eurozone. (opens the original)

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    Let’s start from the key events of this week:US Treasury Bond Buyback Announcement: Bessent surprised markets with a plan to double longer-dated bond repurchases. Treasuries whipsawed, the 10-year settled near 4.69%, and the dollar hit a three-month low, drawing yield curve control comparisons to Japan.Bitcoin’s Best Week in Over Three Years: Bitcoin jumped about 22%, trading near $77,000, its best week since March 2023. Crypto-linked stocks like Strategy, Coinbase, and Robinhood rode the w

  5. Issue · Aug 16, 2026

    Nikkei, Nigiri, JGBs. (opens the original)

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    After we reviewed the outlook for Japan a couple of months ago, we provide a quick update in this lazy summer period. Compared to our original views, what we expected has been unfolding, namely: higher equities and higher bond yields. Indeed, stock/equity performance in Japan is one of the best globally.Subscribe now Read more

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