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Observations on intraday market behaviour, structure, and context — explored through data, not prediction.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 33
- Latest publication
- Sep 30, 2026
- Audience
- Checking…
- Earliest in this view
- Jul 13, 2026
Latest issues
Thursday Morning Briefing: A New Month After Late Selling (opens the original)
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Morning summaryYesterday’s Australian session and its aftermath told very different stories. The ASX session gained 105 points, a 99.5th-percentile move in Mosaic’s history, before the 4:00–4:30pm Sydney aftermarket fell 31 points—down at the 0.4th percentile. Overnight futures then closed 74 points below the prior ASX close, while the S&P 500’s latest completed session lost 19 points. October opens with a sharp change in the local backdrop after yesterday’s CPI-day strength.Yesterday’s Daily Co
AUS200: Month-End Selling, Then a New Month — Does It Carry Over? | 1 Oct 2026 (opens the original)
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The AUS200 fell 31 points in yesterday's aftermarket, the half hour after the 4pm close on the last day of the month and quarter. In the 14 previous first days of a new month after an aftermarket drop of at least 10 points, the AUS200 day finished higher 12 times, averaging +26 points.Today's question: when the aftermarket falls at least 10 points into month-end, what happens on the first day of the new month?I cover: what the aftermarket window is and why month-end institutional flows (the clos
Wednesday Morning Briefing: CPI Day After a Softer S&P (opens the original)
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<img alt="Mosaic session map — Wednesday 30 September 2026, 09:00 AEST" class="sizing-normal" height="940" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!UMsd!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpu
AUS200: CPI Day After an S&P Down Day — Does the ASX Shrug It Off? | 30 Sep 2026 (opens the original)
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The S&P 500 fell 14 points overnight, but Australian futures closed the night 18 points above yesterday's ASX close. And it's Australian CPI day. In 14 previous occasions, the ASX finished above its 10am open 13 times, with an average move of +39 points to the 4pm close.Today's question: does a soft Wall Street matter on CPI day if our futures haven't cracked?I cover: the setup (CPI day, a softer S&P the day before and overnight futures holding up), how the ASX session finished in the 14 previou
Tuesday Morning Briefing: RBA Day After a Late Australian Sell-Off (opens the original)
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Morning summaryAustralia heads into RBA Tuesday after a late sell-off at home and a weaker completed US session. The S&P 500 fell 59 points, while US500’s first cash-session hour lost 43 points—at Mo… Read more
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