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Simply, Weather. is an organization that develops and produces medium-range weather forecasts, long-range forecast, season and sub-seasonal forecasting products.
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- Sep 22, 2026
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A historic El Niño is locking in for winter, and here is what the data actually says (opens the original)
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The 2026-27 El Niño is on track to be one of the strongest ever measured, and the atmosphere is already responding the way the textbook says it should. That gives us real confidence in the broad winter pattern across the United States. What it does not give us is certainty about any individual storm, and that distinction is worth sitting with before you read another apocalyptic Facebook post about it.The setupEl Niño is measured through sea surface temperature anomalies in a strip of the tropica
Niño 3.4 anomalies continue to surge, and what a top-tier ENSO event means for global and California weather (opens the original)
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NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center put the odds at over 90 percent for a very strong El Niño this fall and winter in its mid August discussion, with a 69 percent chance it becomes the strongest event since record keeping began in 1950. That second number comes from CPC’s RONI index (a running three month sea surface temperature anomaly measurement used to classify ENSO strength), which would need to hit +2.5 degrees C or higher in the October through December window to clear that historic bar.<a c
A Niño 3.4 anomaly already past 1.4°C, a deep subsurface warm pool, and what a record-strength event means for the Southeast's winter storm track (opens the original)
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NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has this event in an El Niño Advisory, strengthening fast, with better than a 90 percent chance of reaching “very strong” intensity during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-27. As of the August 13 diagnostic discussion, there’s now a 69 percent chance the October-December average comes in strong enough to exceed every El Niño on record dating back to 1950. That’s not a lock. It’s a real possibility worth planning around, especially across the Southe
100 knot winds aloft, 300+ effective SRH, and the strong-tornado question over the Upper Midwest (opens the original)
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Today carries the more serious threat, an enhanced risk across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes with a corridor from Iowa through Wisconsin into Upper Michigan where a couple of strong tornadoes (EF2 or greater) are possible. Tomorrow’s picture is still forming, pattern recognition points at the Ohio Valley with a damaging wind threat, but I’m not ready to hang numbers on it yet.Simply, Weather. is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becomin
Weak steering currents, warm water, and a low-confidence intensity forecast (opens the original)
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Tropical Depression Two formed Sunday morning over the northeastern Gulf and has done almost nothing since, drifting southeast over the past few hours instead of moving toward anyone. That’s about to change. NHC has it becoming a tropical storm Monday, then turning west and tracking along or just offshore of the northern Gulf Coast through the week. A Tropical Storm Watch already covers the Florida Panhandle, and Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas all need to be paying attention.Simply,
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