HeyJaredSensemaker
On certainty and uncertainty, misinformation, conspiracy theories, and the epistemic crisis. With digressions into AI and tech, politics, religious (non)belief, and family estrangement.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 5
- Latest publication
- Sep 23, 2026
- Audience
- Checking…
- Earliest in this view
- Jul 29, 2026
Latest issues
Unwarranted Certainty (opens the original)
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Psychologist Keith Stanovich offers a useful model for unpacking reasons smart people sometimes fail to weigh evidence properly, leading to unwarranted certainty and false beliefs.
We need to nationalize the AGI race (opens the original)
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The AI discourse conflates a lot of things under the “AI” label. Most importantly we need to decouple near-term applications of AI for business, science, etc. from the somewhat theoretical pursuit of AGI and superintelligence. These are very different things that require different approaches. Here I argue that we need to nationalize the latter. If we don’t, I think there’s a reckoning ahead that will force the issue anyway. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other s
Nuance is not a Trick (opens the original)
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Honest, meaningful communication requires nuance (with a clip from Diary of a CEO ). This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit armchairpundit.substack.com
Imaginary Peril (opens the original)
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A lot of people worry obsessively about imaginary dangers — chemtrails, vaccines, trans athletes... And some of those people have made it their full time job to warn us about things that aren’t real. Where do they get their information? Why do they believe it (or do they really)? Why should we care? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit armchairpundit.substack.com
Holocene We Hardly Knew Ye (opens the original)
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It’s been a minute. I’ve been busy with other projects, but I have also been feeling weighed down by some of the things I tend to write about here, although in vague and unfocused ways that make it hard to channel those feelings into words.<img
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