HeyJaredSaltmarsh Economics
Focus on macroeconomics (BoE/ECB policy, inflation, rates) and Climate Change (emissions, net zero, asset allocation)
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 14
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- Sep 30, 2026
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- Aug 5, 2026
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Living with a large, but very different BoE balance sheet (opens the original)
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When it comes to the BoE’s bigger technical policy announcements, we try and look at things in the round, including papers published in a similar vein and the various related briefings there may have been in the last year, or so. There always seems to be a certain logic to such things.This is not like monetary policy decisions, where dissent and subtle disagreements should be expected on the MPC. And so it proved again with the recent BoE’s Big announcement with QT - see Dave Ramsden speech “Qua
What we read on our holidays (opens the original)
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Yesterday I attended the excellent inaugural London Macro Policy Forum, organised jointly by NIESR, Imperial College and Santander. This provided much food for thought, hopefully helping provide a springboard for several more Substack posts in the days ahead. Disappointedly, climate change was only mentioned once, by the BoE’s Sarah Breeden when she referenced the risks stemming from a Super El Niño. The panel on monetary policy focused on energy shocks (and their recent correlation with interes
The road to Quantitative Normalisation: the BoE leads, the ECB follows? (opens the original)
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Over the last week the market's focus was predominantly on the US Fed's rate decision but, for us, the more interesting announcement was the Bank of England outlining what it plans to do with the remaining £488bn of gilts held in the Bank's Asset Purchase Facility (APF). For our reading of events, take a look at David Owen's latest post here, which runs through the reduced pace of active bond sales compared to what the BoE has been doing in recent years, as well as the implications for the diffe
New trading arrangements in the new world order (opens the original)
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Apologies for the radio silence, but I was having some downtime, doing a road trip across the beautiful Canadian Maritimes, at one point - in New Brunswick’s St Andrews - being within what, on the face of it, seemed almost like kayaking distance of Maine in the US, but made much more challenging by the extreme tidal drop and strong ocean currents. Which brings us to Mark Carney’s proposal of a new trade arrangement - call it “associate membership” or a “unique allowance” - between Canada and the
ECB delivers a hawkish hike, aims for 3% (opens the original)
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As expected, the ECB raised interest rates for the second time in three months today, and signalled that more policy tightening will likely be required in the coming meetings. Although no pre-commitment was made, the new quarterly forecasts show core inflation at 2.3% in 2028. This is higher than the 2.2% projection made in June, which indicates that the Governing Council believes more rate hikes will be needed to get inflation to the 2% target in the medium term.As we argued ahead of the June m
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