SASage Advisory

1. Article · Jul 31, 2026 · Sage Advisory

   FOMC Recap: The Removal of Forward Guidance Is Not a Communications Change. It's a Policy Tool. | ETF Trends (opens the original)

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   The Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% in a split 9-3 vote, while reiterating that inflation remains above target and the FOMC is committed to restoring price stability. On the surface, the outcome was uneventful. Beneath it, however, Chair Warsh continued his effort to reshape how monetary policy is communicated and ultimately reflected in financial markets. The clearest message from the press conference was that eliminating forward guidance is itself a tool in the

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2. Article · Jul 29, 2026 · Sage Advisory

   Reprogramming the Fed’s Reaction Function (opens the original)

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   This article was originally published on ETFTrends.com. The month following Fed Chair Warsh's first meeting has seen no shortage of drama, as U.S./Iran hostilities resumed (then paused again), inflation surprised to the downside, and the market ascribed an increasing probability of near-term hikes in the absence of forward guidance. The probability of a Fed hike in July exemplifies the new reality of Fed policy: the odds of a rate hike at the July FOMC meeting surged to 39% after Warsh's first F

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3. Article · Jul 21, 2026 · Sage Advisory

   The Changing Mosaic of Risk Factors (opens the original)

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   This article was originally published on ETFTrends.com. The threads of the markets continue to weave a complicated story. The landscape has moved from a backdrop characterized by a hawkish Fed, a bulletproof AI investment cycle, and a willingness to look through Iran/U.S. tensions, to one defined by a respite from Fed tightening, doubts about the return on investment of AI spending, and a renewed Iran/U.S. conflict with no end in sight. Inflation prints have surprised to the downside recently, w

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4. Article · Jul 16, 2026 · Sage Advisory

   Notes from the Desk: Priced for Perfection (opens the original)

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   This article was originally published on ETFTrends.com. The crescendo of AI-related spending is affecting all corners of the capital markets. Debt financing has been especially impacted this year given the epic financing needs of the largest hyperscalers. The big four — Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon — are slated to spend at least $700 billion in 2026, roughly 80% higher than 2025's record figure. That amounts to 2.2% of GDP in AI capex from these four names alone, before accounting for t

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