HeyJaredSabato's Crystal Ball
Sabato’s Crystal Ball is a comprehensive, nonpartisan political analysis and handicapping newsletter produced by the Center for Politics at UVA.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 14
- Latest publication
- Sep 29, 2026
- Audience
- Checking…
- Earliest in this view
- Aug 11, 2026
Latest issues
Will Republicans Wake Up As September Ends? 11 More House Ratings Changes Towards Democrats (opens the original)
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Overall ratings summary:HOUSE: 213 at least Leans D, 202 at least Leans R, 20 Toss-ups. See ratings.SENATE: 48 at least Leans D, 47 at least Leans R, 5 Toss-ups. See ratings.GOVERNORS: 24 at least Leans D, 22 at least Leans R, 4 Toss-ups. See ratings.KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— A lousy month of polling for Republ
Rating Changes Toward Democrats Across the Board: MI-SEN to Leans D, Other Key Statewide Races to Toss-up (opens the original)
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Overall ratings summary:HOUSE: 211 at least Leans D, 203 at least Leans R, 21 Toss-ups. See ratings.SENATE: 48 at least Leans D, 47 at least Leans R, 5 Toss-ups. See ratings.GOVERNORS: 24 at least Leans D, 22 at least Leans R, 4 Toss-ups. See ratings.KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— A
Seven Weeks to Go: Polling Not Getting Better for Republicans; 8 House Rating Changes (opens the original)
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Overall ratings summary:HOUSE: 210 at least Leans D, 203 at least Leans R, 22 Toss-ups. See ratings.SENATE: 48 at least Leans R, 47 at least Leans D, 5 Toss-ups. See ratings.GOVERNORS: 24 at least leaning to each party, 2 Toss-ups. See ratings.KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— There
GOP Redistricting Edge Blunted by Missouri Reverting to Old Map, Overall Environment (opens the original)
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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— Missouri reverting to its old House districts for 2026 slightly lessens the overall GOP improvement on the national House map, although the map is still more favorable to them than the map in place for 2024 was.— A state-by-state scorecard based on our House ratings shows the Republicans gaining between 2 to 6 seats from redistricting this cycle, although there is potential for the final tally to end up somewhere outside of that range.<p class="cta-
The Six Regions That Will Decide the House (opens the original)
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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— The key districts in the battle for the House fit into a half-dozen regions scattered across the nation.— What follows is a path toward what Democrats need to do (or Republicans need to prevent) in order to win a bare, 218-217 majority.Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.<input class="email-input" name="email" tabindex="-1" type="
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