HeyJaredRisk Premium: Research
Deep dive analysis of individual companies and securities. This is a separate newsletter from my main page: Risk Premium. So if you enjoy the content over there, I encourage you to sign up here as well!
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 9
- Latest publication
- Sep 16, 2026
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- Earliest in this view
- Jul 14, 2026
Latest issues
Terry Smith - Fundsmith Postmortem (opens the original)
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This is a continuation of a series looking at some high profile value investors that have seen their funds underperform their benchmarks over the past decade and a half. I’ve previously looked at David Einhorn’s fund and connected some interesting dots regarding his performance and his struggles relative to the S&P 500. Below is a quick recap. It’ll be interesting to see if there are any common themes as I further explore the space. David Einhorn Lessons:High churn and early exits left a lot of
David Einhorn - Greenlight Capital Post Mortem (opens the original)
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There are a handful of prolific value investors that famously floundered in the post-GFC world. I wanted to take a look at their past track record to see if there are any lessons we can learn. Is value investing really dead or did these managers make a mistake somewhere else in their allocation decisions?Going into this, I had the hypothesis that many of these managers may have bought into value traps - companies that looked undervalued, but weren’t sustainable enough to actually return capital
Post-Dilution Performance (opens the original)
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I recently performed a study that looked at the predictability of dilution events. I found that corporate equity raises were very predictable using a pretty simple model. In that study, I also took a preliminary look at performance following a dilution event, and came to some pretty definitive conclusions that you did not want to own equities after a company issued new shares. After further examination, the results weren’t actually as conclusive as the initial look suggested. The findings were d
Going Nuclear (opens the original)
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I wasn’t always like this. I very much identify as a value investing ‘purist’. I love low price-to-earnings stocks as much as the next guy, and I would love to write about “solid businesses at great prices”. In March of 2020, I was buying General Dynamics and other defense names at single digit PEs. In 2021, I bought pharma names under 15x. In 2024, I wrote about the relative attractiveness of developed international stocks compared to U.S. indices. But that’s not the market of today. Most of th
Vertical Aerospace - Monday Morning Quarterbacking (opens the original)
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Vertical Aerospace’s blunders offer up an interesting case study in management decision making and pre-revenue valuation dynamics. <img alt="" class="sizing-normal" height="1216" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!922q!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:g
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