HeyJaredReverse Engineering Finance
A newsletter than explains the underlying mechanics of the financial system and then uses those mechanics to make projections
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 5
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- Sep 10, 2026
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- Jul 11, 2026
Latest issues
August 26 FHA Delinquency Report (opens the original)
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I led off last month with an explanation of why the number of loans 1 month and 2 months late in the GNMA data can seemingly buck the seasonal trend in some months with usually a strong bounce back to the seasonal trend the next month (by seasonal trend I generally mean deterioration from summer to the new year and improvement in the spring). I did so last month to explain why the improvement in the 1 month and 2 month lates in July would likely be met with a large deterioration in August since
August Treasury Model Update (opens the original)
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Last weeks exciting news was Treasury announcing that they would double the amount of buybacks for the 10-20y and 20-30y maturity buckets from as much as 2b per operation to as much as 4b per operation. Note I use the term “as much as” because the buyback operations do not always result in Treasury buying back the max amount they “authorize” themselves for that operation. In fact just last week the buyback operation in the 3-5y maturity bucket was “authorized” to buyback 4b, but Treasury only ex
July 26 FHA Delinquency Report (opens the original)
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Each month in this report I provide a timely look at the performance data for the ~7.3 million FHA loans in GNMA II MBS. I provide delinquency rates and serious delinquency rates for various cohorts within the FHA portfolio to try and get a sense for just how bad it is going to get for FHA short sales and foreclosures over the next one to two years. I report how these delinquency rates changed (including the raw numbers of 30 day lates, 60 day lates, 90 day lates, 120 day lates 150 day lates and
Summer QRA Projection and Treasury Model Update (opens the original)
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Apologies for the delay in providing Total Treasury Model updates. A big part of that delay was the need to overhaul the model for the upcoming fiscal year. I did this last year in October but decided to do it earlier this year to hopefully improve the models accuracy on projecting the financing need for the October-December qtr which first gets projected by Treasury in the summer QRA. The overhaul includes an analysis of every category the model specifically projects, currently 47 deposit categ
June 26 FHA Delinquency Report (opens the original)
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Last month saw the beginning of a rise in early stage delinquencies with tax refund/bonus season now in the rear view mirror. Typically June continues that trend and this June stuck to form. So what did May show for the 7.2 million FHA loans in GNMA II MBS this year and what do the first few months of performance data on post tightening partial claims and loan modifications show? Read more
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