HeyJaredReducing Uncertainty
Clear, evidence-based insights on sports, strategy, and life — one read at a time.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 17
- Latest publication
- Sep 29, 2026
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- Earliest in this view
- Jul 9, 2026
Latest issues
Waiver Targets for Week 4 (opens the original)
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My waiver philosophy can essentially be summed up to this:Only add players you are excited to (possibly) start. For most teams, this means I want as many high-upside/contingent bets as I can get, often leading to a heavy number of bench running backs. However, as the season progresses, and bye weeks arrive, the contingent bets weaken in value, while simply fielding the best projected team each week matters more. As such, you won’t see many recommendations for week-ahead targets until week five o
Final Thoughts: Week 3 (opens the original)
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Each week, Final Thoughts will provide analysis to help inform your final decisions for the week, including:Survivor contestsConfidence picksInjury updatesWeather considerationsStart/Sit decisionsWeekly Eliminator and DFS analysisUpdating my priorsSurvivor ContestsThis week, the Chiefs are in a tier of their own, with a whopping 85% win probability vs the Dolphins. Below them, I expect the Seahawks and Lions to be solid secondary plays, and perhaps the Bills/Eagles with each of those four
Metrics and Matchups: Week 3 (opens the original)
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Welcome to Metrics and Matchups, where I’ll detail each of the key metrics for each team and analyze each matchup for this week. The chart below is color coded to show each team’s strengths and weaknesses. Below that, I’ll break down each matchup, highlight this week’s fast and slow paced games, look at Pass Rate Over Expectation, and identify the biggest OL and DL mismatches.One note before we get to it: we’re working with just two weeks of data, so there’s still going to be plenty of noise in
Waiver Targets for Week 3 (opens the original)
Read excerpt
My waiver philosophy can essentially be summed up to this:Only add players you are excited to (possibly) start. For most teams, this means I want as many high-upside/contingent bets as I can get, often leading to a heavy number of bench running backs. However, as the season progresses, and bye weeks arrive, the contingent bets weaken in value, while simply fielding the best projected team each week matters more. As such, you won’t see many recommendations for week-ahead targets until week five o
Final Thoughts: Week 2 (opens the original)
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Each week, Final Thoughts will provide analysis to help inform your final decisions for the week, including:Survivor contestsConfidence picksInjury updatesWeather considerationsStart/Sit decisionsWeekly Eliminator and DFS analysisUpdating my priorsSurvivor ContestsThis week, I expect two teams to garner the lions share of the ownership. Those are the 49ers, as 13-point favorites over the Dolphins, and the Bucs who 7.5 point favorites over the Browns. Based on the spread, the 49ers are cle
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