HeyJaredRandom Walk Economics
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- Indexed issues, last 90 days
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- Sep 29, 2026
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- Jul 7, 2026
Latest issues
Your 2027 Budget Is Due. Are You Being Reactive or Proactive? (opens the original)
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TL;DR: Bloomin' Brands' revenue appears to rise and fall with the broader consumer spending patterns, while its marketing budget tends to move with revenue or after it. In 2021, revenue rose 30% even as ad spending hit a low; in 2022, ad spending jumped 57% after revenue growth had already peaked. Budgets built on last year's results often land late in the cycle. With a deceleration expected in 2027, now is the time to plan when your marketing dollars hit.Most companies assume marketing drives s
The U.S. Crossed $40 Trillion in Debt. That Isn't the Part That Worries Us. (opens the original)
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TL;DR. The U.S. crossed $40 trillion in federal debt, but the headline number is not what concerns us most. Debt is approaching its postwar record relative to GDP while the cost of carrying it is setting records of its own. The obvious fixes - higher taxes, lower spending, faster growth - are economically straightforward and politically difficult. History offers another rhyme: financial repression. We are not saying it is happening today, but Treasury’s newly expanded buybacks give us another re
The Logo Came Back. The Customers Didn't. (opens the original)
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“So the question worth asking about your own business is the one Cracker Barrel’s numbers answer so starkly: if the market handed you nothing next year, no price increases, no extra customers, what would your growth look like? For most companies, it’s a guess. For the ones we work with, that number is front and center.”We are coming up on a full years since Cracker Barrel tried to retire the Old Timer. The man in overalls leaning against a barrel, a fixture of roadside America since 1977, was re
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