HeyJaredRacingSisyphus - the Intersection of Finance, Law & Markets
Recovering journalist, venture investor, mutual fund manager, investment officer & regulatory antagonist. "The truth is out there but so are lies." Dana Scully. The hidden aspects of the winners and losers in trading, finance and government regulation.
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- 11
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- Sep 19, 2026
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- Aug 10, 2026
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Wall Street yelling “cheap forward earnings” on SP500... (opens the original)
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After a lifetime as an investor, there are some Wall Street conventions I expected to be extinguished years ago. They persist with unyielding and stubborn pretense. The Wall Street crowd publishes future estimates of earnings with CNBC chanting “forward PEs.” The forward PE has always invited the professional investing crowds to wait breathlessly for new “next year” numbers sometime in the third quarter of the current year. My few days at the Harvard Behavioral Finance seminar a few decades ago
September is the worst of months, right? (opens the original)
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AI makes it so easy to cherry pick data - and frankly all that does is serve the person “talking their own book.” Always infuriates me; which is why I hated trading rooms with CNBC or Bloomberg or Fox streaming all day. Statistics are boring and informative, but don’t create subscribers or viewers drawn like moths to a marketer’s or screamer’s flame. If you look at all the monthly closes of the SP Total Return (includes dividends) since 1968 - captures most of the computer in finance age and the
Strategic Incomprehension - How War Planners Trying to Save Battlefield Lives Can Create Famine (opens the original)
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Plotting the Dots<div class="embedded-post-ti
Rates are rising, shouldn’t you sell gold? (opens the original)
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So much wailing and gnashing of teeth about interest rates at new highs for investors in their 30s and 40s. Correlation studies based on recent data say sell gold when rates are rising; history tells a different story. * Higher nominal yields do not reliably kill gold. Correlation of gold’s calendar-year return with the 10-year yield, 1970–2025, is about −0.05 (essentially zero).* In the 28 years when the 10-year averaged ≥ 6%, gold’s average return was +10.7%.* In the 12 years when it averaged
The Crowded Trade (opens the original)
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Definition of a crowded trade. When your position is full, and the market trades its lowest weekly SPY volume since 2004. The contraction of SPY ETF trading volume not a new thing and now sitting well below historical averages. Gating just doesn’t happen when Private Equity doesn’t want to let you out; gating also happens when equity markets treat every medium sized trade as a million share order.<a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!llNq!,f_a
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