HeyJaredPredictable
Founded by Stu Burguiere, Predictable is a daily lens on the news through prediction markets.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 21
- Latest publication
- Sep 30, 2026
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- Earliest in this view
- Aug 17, 2026
Latest issues
Karen Bass Is Finally Tanking (opens the original)
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There are few things more satisfying in prediction markets than watching a thesis slowly become the conventional wisdom.Months ago, we were looking at Nithya Raman down around 8 or 9 cents in the LA mayor’s race. But Karen Bass had a big problem: she’s still Karen Bass. Well, that reality finally caught up to her and now Raman leads Bass in a new poll. The prediction market has flipped. And she was sitting around 58¢ during today’s show.So naturally, I bought more.THE QUESTIONThis market isn’t r
The Markets Still Aren’t Buying the Democrats’ New Strategy (opens the original)
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With 36 days until midterms, it’s not quite time thit the panic button. You can hit that on October 19th, for reasons I explained last week. From now until then we’ll continue to be laser focused on everything happening, and what’s happening right now is some of these Senate markets are getting weird.Polls vs. MarketsNebraska might be the best example of what I mean. Dan Osborn is running as an independent against Republican Pete Ricketts, and some of the polling has this thing basically looking
STU'S PICKS (opens the original)
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I Picked Mary Peltola. Then All Hell Broke Loose. (opens the original)
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I am beginning to think Candidate Countdown is cursed. And unfortunately for Mary Peltola, she may have just become our most convincing piece of evidence.Yesterday, I featured Peltola as my candidate of the day. We went through the Alaska Senate race and why I liked my position. Less than 24 hours later, the New York Times drops a story featuring former aides hurling a bunch of very October surprise-ish sounding accusations… here in late September. Her team has pushed back on the allegations and
I'm Preparing My Portfolio for a Midterm Hurricane (opens the original)
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October 19. That’s officially Predictable Panic Day. Put it on your calendar. Maybe order a cake. Everyone likes cake, right?The latest polling is not exactly inspiring confidence in the GOP. They’re a bit panicked, as evidenced by the heaping gobs of money they’re dumping into race after race. The panic isn’t necessarily unwarranted for Republicans given Trump’s speech at the UN that all but signaled the Iran war would continue on through the election. That means gas prices (and prices on just
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