HeyJaredPML's Macro Focus
Chief economist with considerable experience in formulating, implementing and assessing macro policies and their effects on economies and markets.
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 10
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- Sep 25, 2026
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- Aug 24, 2026
Latest issues
UK Budget: TIPS and Tricks (opens the original)
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<img alt="" class="sizing-normal" height="1086" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!0Wq8!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd05ba784-d618-4be4-a22e-80714ed848d7_1448
BoE: Political Ravishment and Fiscal Dominance? (opens the original)
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In 1797, James Gillray published a cartoon that coined the Bank of England’s nickname, the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street. What foresight from 300 years in the past to anticipate QE and the subjugation of monetary policy to the needs of the government of the day. Then, it was William Pitt the Younger Gillray was concerned about; now it's Andy Burnham and John Healey.<a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Jtqr!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive
UK Productivity: The Longer Holiday Solution (opens the original)
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Several people have asked me whether the ONS’s upward productivity revisions are good news for growth and inflation. It is an understandable question. After all, faster productivity normally means more output and weaker unit labour-cost pressure. However, this was not an output-enhancing productivity improvement; it was a statistical revision to hours worked. By revising hours down, the ONS raised output per hour and compensation per hour at the same time. As they put it, “it does not materially
BoE’s Weak on Inflation Monetary Policy: WIMP (opens the original)
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The Bank of England has spent years talking tough about inflation; when it comes to acting tough, it has increasingly looked like a W.I.M.P. (Weak on Inflation Monetary Policy). The latest meeting saw a particularly graphic example. Since the last meeting in July, the inflation forecast at end-2026 has been revised up from 3.2% to 3 3/4%, with a further rise to over 4% early next year. Why is that no reason to change policy, especially as recent GDP data have been better than expected?Amazing th
Don’t Cry for Me, Forward Guidance (opens the original)
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There’s been criticism of Kevin Warsh’s decision to reject the previous customary “forward guidance,” including from The Economist (8 August). It’s perfectly understandable that journalists and markets want to be spoon fed after so many years of it.But let’s remember how “forward guidance” became the norm. It was because central banks were at the lower bound for interest rates. Disarmed, to ease monetary conditions they had to influence future rate expectations, and committing to low rates for a
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