HeyJaredPauloMacro’s Substack
My thoughts on global macro, micro, and everything in between
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 16
- Latest publication
- Sep 30, 2026
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- Jul 25, 2026
Latest issues
Negative Convexity is Oddly Invisible (opens the original)
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So we have talked about Rolling Crackups a lot lately. In this morning’s chat opener, I described the MXN/JPY carry getting nailed and possibly starting to leak into developed market carry like AUD/JPY.It’s quarter end, so a lot of trading has windowdressing in mind, but we need to throw mortgages into the mix as well. As I am not an MBS bro, this will be very brief. Read more
Helmets. On. (opens the original)
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A few loose thoughts as have been away from screens since last Tuesday… Read more
The Other Invisible Metal (opens the original)
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Last November, I wrote up a bullish thesis on nickel I called The Invisible Metal. I saw see nickel as an opportunity perceived as hopeless by investors. The consensus view was for surpluses out to 2030 due to relentless growth in Indonesian supply, but Indonesia’s position as nearly 70% of global supply concerned me in the aftermath of Freeport’s Grasberg debacle and I feared any change toward centralization, rationalization, or even nationalization could take the metal from below the cost of g
Positioning in Oil and Nasdaq Is All Wrong (opens the original)
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Last weekend in The Second Mouse Is About to Get the Cheese, I wrote about how investors were fading the recent oil rally into some short covering, and that the lift in oil from $85 to $105 so far this month felt different from the speculative jam higher back in March-April. With the correction of the past few days, I want to briefly elaborate on this in charts using an approach I have not shared before that confirms many investors have cut or lost their position (and faded the rally), and end w
The Second Mouse Is About to Get the Cheese (opens the original)
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Still catching up from late summer travel so thank you for being patient. Every once in a while I will just sit down and go through 400+ charts to see if anything stands out as I look to find my footing. A few things really stood out in oil and macro that are highly actionable. Read more
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