HeyJaredOut Of Options - Michael’s Substack
My personal Substack dedicated to sports, fantasy sports (especially baseball) and occasionally, music
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 11
- Latest publication
- Sep 25, 2026
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- Earliest in this view
- Jul 10, 2026
Latest issues
Comparing 15-Team Actual Value To Preseason Projections and Main Event ADP (opens the original)
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We’ve entered fantasy baseball review season. Unless you’re playing fantasy football, in which case the second-guessing has already started despite vanishingly small sample sizes.We’ll spend the next few months doing some degree of post mortems and analyzing what it means for 2027 (however much of a season we get; see below).For now, I wanted to compare actual player values to preseason projections and average draft position (ADP). The first two or three rounds didn’t return commensurate value,
WHIP It Bad — Analyzing Cristopher Sanchez for 2027 Drafts (opens the original)
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Competing in the rotisserie game is invigorating, exhilarating—but also cruel. Every box score is ringed in neon and every player we roster in said box wears the reticle of a rifle scope. Each pitcher blowup shifts multiple standings points as three or four teams are separated by five-thousandths of a decimal point.1Of course during the home stretch we also review the mistakes along the way that led us into these narrow corners. How did this team that’s top three in wins, strikeouts and ERA get
Anyone? We Have SP Breakout Issues for 2027 (opens the original)
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You know the meme. There’s a famous scene in Ferris Buehler’s Day Off encapsulating the disinterest and, more to the point, ignorance of high school students facing abstruse subject matter. Ben Stein plays a teacher lecturing the kids on the Great Depression and supply-side economics. He futilely attempts to lead them into finishing his sentences, e.g., “in 1930 the Republican-controlled House passed the… anyone?, anyone?… the Hawley-Smoot Tariff Act.”1
The Rich Get Richer (opens the original)
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We have new stadium deals for two MLB owners, John Sherman of the Royals and Patrick Zalupski of the Rays. Despite being sold every time as a grand engine of economic stimulus, these deals always fail to bring the promised benefits to the local community, and in fact usually lead to further demands from sports owners and a spiraling cycle of continued public financing for real estate development around the stadium.1Both the Royals and Rays recently received local government approval for communit
Premature Edraftularion: Reviewing the Meatball + A Note On Fantasy Football Optimism (opens the original)
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I have no idea how much others are plugged into high stakes fantasy baseball, but I’m in the weeds even if I don’t play for superlative sums. Sure, there are marks and wastrels and folks who drop out halfway through the season as on any other platform, but players with stakes tend to really grind the news and data. It’s also no accident that many of the same fantasy baseballers end up winning leagues on the NFBC and littering overall contest leaderboards.High stakes content creators also have to
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