HeyJaredOil not dead
A journey through the oil markets from the physical perspective. We take a look at barrels moving
- Indexed issues, last 90 days
- 12
- Latest publication
- Sep 25, 2026
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- Earliest in this view
- Jul 10, 2026
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Populism at the Pump (opens the original)
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Ok, I’ll play… let’s say the US bans diesel exports for 90 days, but before going to the implications let’s rewind a little bit and go a few weeks in time. The conversation surfaced once again some months ago, when the administration through back channels approached the industry for consultations, and those consultations went something like “put more distillates in New York or else…’<a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kGYm!,f_auto,q_auto:goo
When Models Fail (opens the original)
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This week the colorful note was a major bank admitting defeat and giving up on “modelling” the oil markets, I won’t mock them because I gave up years ago but it got me thinking if they found the same pitfalls I encountered when trying to guess where this market might go next from an input/output standpoint. I won’t ridicule those who still model it because, even as seen as a purely academic exercise, it is an exercise nonetheless and helps to combat cognitive biases, which in this space are copi
Turning the Screw (opens the original)
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A ragtag bunch we left for dead in the Gulf of Aden, a collection of rusted-out distillation towers in northern China, $10bn of value transferred to oil marketers, shipowners and insurers in just one week. All of this because we underestimated them.<img alt="" class="
Eye for an Eye (opens the original)
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It wasn’t that hard to predict. Every period of “peace” is followed by a period of confrontation, whose severity could also be measured in barrels per day, the more barrels cross, the more harsh is the attack. This time they went after Saudi Arabia, which had barely started delivering cargoes in the Gulf of Oman via STS, attacking two VLCCs with considerable ruthlessness, one Saudi-owned and the other belonging to Sinokor (no more free passes?). Then came Trump’s disproportionate response, follo
Blocked out (opens the original)
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Nothing much changed from last week, and that’s a change in itself. If we dig a little deeper, then yes, there is a slight change in perception of oil markets loosening up, there is undisputable evidence of more crude oil flowing through the strait(s), shiptrackers, more Middle Eastern countries offering barrels on the other side, tanker rates, CEO’s publicly bragging how they are bypassing the Iranians… we have been here before, but with a difference... last time we were in this part of the “Ho
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